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Manheim: Year-End Used-Car Values Stay Strong

January 08, 2015

ATLANTA — Wholesale used-vehicle values increased in the fourth quarter by nearly 2% to finish the year slightly higher than last year, as consumer demand for used car and trucks remained strong, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index.

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, a measure of wholesale prices adjusted for mix, mileage and season, ended the year at 123.9, a 1.8% increase from a year ago and 2.1% higher than the third quarter.

An improving job market and attractive financing helped boost the retail market for new and used vehicles. The strongest demand for used vehicles in the fourth quarter was in the $13,000-$15,000 range, a higher sweet spot than a year ago. Sales of certified pre-owned vehicles, late-model vehicles still backed by a warranty, also hit record numbers in 2014.

“The used-vehicle market finished another solid year,” said Manheim Chief Economist Tom Webb. “Consumers continue to see great value in purchasing used vehicles, even at higher price points. Dealers continue to see used vehicles as an important and profitable part of their business.”

Compact car prices were down 1.1% in December, compared to the same period last year, as consumers moved to CUVs and mid-sized cars. Midsize cars had been one of the weaker segments during the year, but saw values end December 2.2% higher than the same period last year. Meanwhile, luxury car values fell 0.4% on a year-over-year basis, holding their prices despite an increase in supply from off-lease vehicles.

Pick-ups and vans remained the strongest segment with pick-ups up 6.1% and vans up 3.1% on a year-over-year basis. Often purchased for business use, demand for these vehicles has increased during the year.

SUV and CUV also continued to be a popular segment, up 2.8% in December compared to the same period last year. Consumers have been moving to compact and mid-size CUVs, which offer a balance of room and fuel efficiency.

With new-car sales volumes expected to plateau, the upcoming year will be critical for the auto industry, officials said. As long as automakers keep incentives low for new-car sales, used-vehicle values should remain stable. An incentive war, however, would lower new-car prices and also put pressure on dealers to lower used-car prices.

“The growth rate in the U.S. auto market is expected to slow down and level off in 2015,” Webb said. “The big question is whether automakers will be satisfied with their respective slice of the pie. If they aren’t satisfied and resort to heavy incentives, prices and profits will fall.”

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