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Edmunds.com Expects Low Sales in September, October

September 30, 2008

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Online information and analysis resource Edmunds.com expects September's new-vehicle sales (including fleet sales) to close out at 1.05 million units, a nearly 20-percent decrease from September 2007 and a 15.7-percent decrease from August 2008.

Notably, September 2008 had 24 selling days, one fewer than last year. When adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 16.4 percent from September 2007.

Record lows

"February 1993 was the last time that fewer than one million new vehicles were sold in a month, and we're coming remarkably close to that volume again," said Jesse Toprak, executive director of industry analysis for Edmunds.com. "Traditionally, October sales are even worse than they are in September, so we don't likely have much to look forward to next month.”

"The automakers and dealers tell us the credit crunch is the number one reason for the drop in sales. People want to buy cars but can't get financing,” commented Michelle Krebs, Senior Editor of Edmunds' AutoObserver.com. "Plus, consumer confidence, which is waning in light of the near-collapse of the financial sector, is another critical factor that just isn't there."

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 47.1 percent in September 2008, down from 51.9 percent in September 2007 and up from 45.7 percent in August 2008.

Individual projections

According to Edmunds.com, sales projections for the leading automakers are as follows:

Chrysler will sell 101,000 units in September 2008, down 36.5 percent compared to September 2007 and down 7.5 percent from August 2008. This would result in a new car market share of 9.7 percent for Chrysler in September 2008, down from 12.2 percent in September 2007 and up from 8.8 percent in August 2008.

Ford will sell 137,000 units in September 2008, down 25.1 percent compared to September 2007 and down 9.6 percent from August 2008. This would result in a new car market share of 13.1 percent of new car sales in September 2008 for Ford, down from 14.0 percent in September 2007 and up from 12.2 percent in August 2008.

GM will sell 255,000 units in September 2008, down 23.9 percent compared to September 2007 and down 17.0 percent from August 2008. GM's market share is expected to be 24.3 percent of new vehicle sales in September 2008, down from 25.6 percent in September 2007 and down from 24.7 percent in August 2008.

Honda will sell 119,000 units in September 2008, down 6.1 percent from September 2007 and down 18.7 percent from August 2008. Honda’s market share is expected to be 11.4 percent in September 2008, up from 9.7 percent in September 2007 and down from 11.8 percent in August 2008.

Nissan will sell 83,000 units in September 2008, down 11.5 percent from September 2007 and down 23.1 percent from August 2008. Nissan's market share is expected to be 7.9 percent in September 2008, up from 7.2 percent in September 2007 and down from 8.7 percent in August 2008.

Toyota will sell 176,000 units in September 2008, down 17.5 percent from September 2007 and down 16.9 percent from August 2008. Toyota's market share is expected to be 16.7 percent in September 2008, up from 16.3 percent in September 2007 and down from 17.0 percent in August 2008.

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