Industry Down Over 40 Percent After Cash for Clunkers Boon, Says Edmunds.com

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — This month's new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 742,000 units, a 22.9 percent decrease from September 2008 and a 41.1 percent decrease from August 2009, according to Edmunds.com.

Edmunds.com analysts predict that September’s Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 9.34 million, down from 14.06 in August.

“The aftereffects of Cash for Clunkers are being felt in two ways: first, a significant number of September sales were pulled ahead into August, and second, the low inventories and often higher prices give shoppers few reasons to buy,” noted Edmunds.com CEO Jeremy Anwyl. “However, in the last half of the month we have seen that sales are gaining momentum, so there is room for a small upside surprise on sales announcement day. In addition, September sales are being buoyed by leftover clunker deliveries.”

September 2009 had 25 selling days, one more than last September 2008. When adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 26.0 percent from September 2008. (The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.)

“The unusual sales pattern that occurred during Cash for Clunkers will make for some odd month-to-month and year-to-year comparisons," commented Michelle Krebs, Senior Analyst for Edmunds.com.

In her analysis for Edmunds' AutoObserver.com, Krebs reported, “This September is the opposite of last September. The first half of September 2008 — before the Lehman Brothers collapse — was stronger; sales dried up in the second half. This September sales were weak early in the month due to the Cash for Clunkers hangover and now are reaching a more normal — at least for these times — equilibrium. So, the trajectory of sales is more positive than a year ago.”

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 42.8 percent in September 2009, down from 53.2 percent in September 2008 and up from 41.1 percent in August 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 55,000 units in September 2009, down 48.7 percent compared to September 2008 and down 40.7 percent from August 2009. This would result in a new car market share of 7.4 percent for Chrysler in September 2009, down from 11.1 percent in September 2008 and flat compared with August 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 110,000 units in September 2009, down 9.7 percent compared to September 2008 and down 38.6 percent from August 2009. This would result in a new car market share of 14.9 percent of new car sales in September 2009 for Ford, up from 12.7 percent in September 2008 and up from 14.3 percent in August 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 152,000 units in September 2009, down 46.1 percent compared to September 2008 and down 37.8 percent from August 2009. GM's market share is expected to be 20.6 percent of new vehicle sales in September 2009, down from 29.4 percent in September 2008 and up from 19.5 percent in August 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 89,000 units in September 2009, down 8.3 percent from September 2008 and down 45.1 percent from August 2009. Honda’s market share is expected to be 11.9 percent in September 2009, up from 10.0 percent in September 2008 and down from 12.8 percent in August 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Hyundai will sell 48,000 units in September 2009, down 14.9 percent from September 2008 and down 51.9 percent from August 2009. Hyundai’s market share is expected to be 6.5 percent in September 2009, up from 4.4 percent in September 2008 and down from 8.0 percent in August 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 59,000 units in September 2009, down 1.1 percent from September 2008 and down 44.1 percent from August 2009. Nissan's market share is expected to be 7.9 percent in September 2009, up from 6.2 percent in September 2008 and down from 8.4 percent in August 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 130,000 units in September 2009, down 9.7 percent from September 2008 and down 42.1 percent from August 2009. Toyota's market share is expected to be 17.6 percent in September 2009, up from 15.0 percent in September 2008 and down from 17.9 percent in August 2009.