Seasonal Slowdown Marks November Auto Sales, Says Edmunds.com

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — This month's new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 710,000 units, a 4.5 percent decrease from November 2008 and a 15 percent decrease from October 2009, according to Edmunds.com.

Edmunds.com analysts predict that November's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 10.34 million, down from 10.43 in October 2009.

November 2009 has 23 selling days, two less than last November 2008. When adjusted for this difference, sales increased 3.8 percent from November 2008. (The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.)

"November is living up to its reputation for being one of the worst months of the year for car sales, so everyone is hopeful that Thanksgiving weekend will boost the numbers," commented Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "But automakers have already launched holiday season incentives in order to pick up the pace, and that sense of desperation suggests that bigger discounts – but smaller selection – may be available for those who wait to buy."

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 46.4 percent in November 2009, down from 48.6 percent in November 2008 and up from 45.1 percent in October 2009.

Edmunds.com is also tracking the market share of 2009 and 2010 model year vehicles in autumn sales, and has found that there is remarkable disparity between automakers in terms of old model year inventory. For example, fewer than 42 percent of new vehicles sold by Chrysler, General Motors, Hyundai and Nissan in October were 2010 model year, but the industry average was 59 percent.

“The old inventory is heavily discounted and this is forcing down the price of cross-shopped 2010 models, especially new Fords," Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Michelle Krebs reported on AutoObserver.com. “This dynamic is playing a role in automaker sales volumes since many of this season’s car shoppers are focused on finding bargains and landing at the dealerships flush with 2009 inventory.”

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 55,000 units in November 2009, down 35.0 percent compared to November 2008 and down 15.8 percent from October 2009. This would result in a new car market share of 7.8 percent for Chrysler in November 2009, down from 11.4 percent in November 2008 and flat from 7.8 percent as in October 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 123,000 units in November 2009, down 0.3 percent compared to November 2008 and down 8.8 percent from October 2009. This would result in a new car market share of 17.3 percent of new car sales in November 2009 for Ford, up from 16.6 percent in November 2008 and up from 16.1 percent in October 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 151,000 units in November 2009, down 1.3 percent compared to November 2008 and down 14.2 percent from October 2009. GM's market share is expected to be 21.3 percent of new vehicle sales in November 2009, up from 20.6 percent in November 2008 and up from 21.1 percent in October 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 69,000 units in November 2009, down 9.1 percent from November 2008 and down 18.9 percent from October 2009. Honda’s market share is expected to be 9.8 percent in November 2009, down from 10.3 percent in November 2008 and down from 10.2 percent in October 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Hyundai will sell 43,000 units in November 2009, up 25.9 percent from November 2008 and down 19.0 percent from October 2009. Hyundai’s market share is expected to be 6.1 percent in November 2009, up from 4.6 percent in November 2008 and down from 6.4 percent in October 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 46,000 units in November 2009, down 0.7 percent from November 2008 and down 23.1 percent from October 2009. Nissan's market share is expected to be 6.5 percent in November 2009, up from 6.3 percent in November 2008 and down from 7.2 percent in October 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 125,000 units in November 2009, down 4.4 percent from November 2008 and down 18.2 percent from October 2009. Toyota's market share is expected to be 17.5 percent in November 2009, flat from 17.5 percent in November 2008 and down from 18.2 percent in October 2009.