Vehicle Sales Heading Up in 2010, Says Edmunds.com

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — This month's new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 1.01 million units, a 13.3 percent increase from December 2008 and a 35.7 percent increase from November 2009, according to Edmunds.com.

Edmunds.com analysts predict that December's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 11.11 million, up from 10.89 million in November 2009.

Based on this forecast, annual sales for 2009 will total just over 10 million, a decrease of almost three million, or 21.3 percent, from 2008.

December 2009 had 28 selling days, two more than last December 2008. When adjusted for this difference, sales increased 5.2 percent from December 2008. (The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.)

"Many of the automakers can celebrate a bright ending to a tough year this holiday season. For example, Subaru should finally climb back above two percent market share and may even pass Volkswagen in annual sales," observed Jessica Caldwell, director of industry analysis for Edmunds.com. "However, the industry is still far below its comfort zone in terms of sales volume. Case in point: this is the first year since the 1960s in which Chrysler won’t sell one million vehicles."

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 45.8 percent in December 2009, down from 50.3 percent in December 2008 and up from 45.1 percent in November 2009.

"One of the wild races of 2009 was between the new Chevrolet Camaro and venerable Ford Mustang. Despite Camaro's surge, Edmunds.com predicts Mustang will win the pony car sales race this year in a photo finish. And in 2010, Chevy and Ford up the ante: Camaro goes topless and Mustang gets a hot new engine," commented Michelle Krebs, Edmunds.com senior analyst.

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 82,000 units in December 2009, down 7.8 percent compared to December 2008 and up 30.8 percent from November 2009. This would result in a new car market share of 8.2 percent for Chrysler in December 2009, down from 10.0 percent in December 2008 and down from 8.5 percent as in November 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 174,000 units in December 2009, up 25.1 percent compared to December 2008 and up 42.5 percent from November 2009. This would result in a new car market share of 17.2 percent of new car sales in December 2009 for Ford, up from 15.6 percent in December 2008 and up from 16.4 percent in November 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 206,000 units in December 2009, down 6.3 percent compared to December 2008 and up 37.0 percent from November 2009. GM's market share is expected to be 20.4 percent of new vehicle sales in December 2009, down from 24.7 percent in December 2008 and up from 20.2 percent in November 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 100,000 units in December 2009, up 16.0 percent from December 2008 and up 35.0 percent from November 2009. Honda’s market share is expected to be 9.9 percent in December 2009, up from 9.7 percent in December 2008 and flat from 9.9 percent in November 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Hyundai will sell 63,000 units in December 2009, up 63.7 percent from December 2008 and up 37.7 percent from November 2009. Hyundai’s market share is expected to be 6.3 percent in December 2009, up from 4.3 percent in December 2008 and up from 6.2 percent in November 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 70,000 units in December 2009, up 12.9 percent from December 2008 and up 26.0 percent from November 2009. Nissan's market share is expected to be 6.9 percent in December 2009, down from 7.0 percent in December 2008 and down from 7.5 percent in November 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 185,000 units in December 2009, up 30.2 percent from December 2008 and up 38.2 percent from November 2009. Toyota's market share is expected to be 18.3 percent in December 2009, up from 15.9 percent in December 2008 and up from 18.0 percent in November 2009.