Toyota Market Share Expected to Plummet to Lowest Since 2006

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Edmunds.com analysts predict that January's new-vehicle sales (including fleet sales) will come in at 701,000 units, and that the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) will be 10.7 million, down from 11.2 in December 2009.

This sales forecast represents a 7.1 percent increase from January 2009 but a 31.7 percent decrease from December 2009, according to Edmunds.com. January 2010 had 24 selling days, two less than last January 2009. When adjusted for this difference, sales increased 16.0 percent from January 2009. (The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.)

"December is generally one of the strongest sales months of the year, while January is typically one of the weakest, and that held true this season," observed Jessica Caldwell, Director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com. "This month’s sales were buoyed by hefty hikes in fleet sales."

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 47.2 percent in January 2010, up from 43.4 percent in January 2009 and up from 46.2 percent in December 2009.

"Toyota’s market share is likely to drop to 14.7 percent in January; the last time it was that low was in March 2006 when its share was 14.2 percent of U.S. sales. In contrast, Ford is expected to have its best month for market share since May 2006. Edmunds.com forecasts Ford’s share at 18.0 percent. The last time it was that high was in May 2006 at 18.4 percent," noted Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Michelle Krebs who covers the forecast in more detail at Edmunds' AutoObserver.com.

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 65,000 units in January 2010, up 5.7 percent compared to January 2009 and down 24.3 percent from December 2009. This would result in a new car market share of 9.3 percent for Chrysler in January 2010, down from 9.4 percent in January 2009 and up from 8.4 percent as in December 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 126,000 units in January 2010, up 33.4 percent compared to January 2009 and down 30.4 percent from December 2009. This would result in a new car market share of 18.0 percent of new car sales in January 2010 for Ford, up from 14.4 percent in January 2009 and up from 17.6 percent in December 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 140,000 units in January 2010, up 8.8 percent compared to January 2009 and down 32.7 percent from December 2009. GM's market share is expected to be 19.9 percent of new vehicle sales in January 2010, up from 19.6 percent in January 2009 and down from 20.2 percent in December 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 73,000 units in January 2010, up 2.8 percent from January 2009 and down 31.9 percent from December 2009. Honda’s market share is expected to be 10.4 percent in January 2010, down from 10.8 percent in January 2009 and flat from 10.4 percent in December 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Hyundai will sell 46,000 units in January 2010, down 0.9 percent from January 2009 and down 15.8 percent from December 2009. Hyundai’s market share is expected to be 6.6 percent in January 2010, down from 7.1 percent in January 2009 and up from 5.3 percent in December 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 61,000 units in January 2010, up 13.7 percent from January 2009 and down 16.5 percent from December 2009. Nissan's market share is expected to be 8.7 percent in January 2010, up from 8.2 percent in January 2009 and up from 7.2 percent in December 2009.

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 103,000 units in January 2010, down 11.9 percent from January 2009 and down 45.0 percent from December 2009. Toyota's market share is expected to be 14.7 percent in January 2010, down from 17.9 percent in January 2009 and down from 18.3 percent in December 2009.