Edmunds.com Predicts 12.4 Million SAAR for March

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — This month's new-vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 1,119,700 units, a 30.9 percent increase from March 2009 and a 43.9 percent increase from February 2010, according to Edmunds.com.

Edmunds.com analysts predict that March's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) will be 12.4 million, up from 10.3 million in February 2010.

“Although this SAAR sounds promising, it’s too early to wave the flag and say that the economy has turned the corner,” Edmunds.com CEO Jeremy Anwyl told AutoObserver.com. “Incentives drove sales this month, but those were defensive moves in response to Toyota stepping up incentives and are unlikely to last because inventories are simply not high enough to justify them in the long term.”

March 2010 had 26 selling days, one more than last March 2009. When adjusted for this difference, sales increased 25.9 percent from March 2009. (The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.)

"What a difference a month makes for Toyota, whose sales climbed 80 percent since February thanks to generous incentives and more balanced headlines," observed Jessica Caldwell, director of industry analysis for Edmunds.com. "At this point, Toyota seems to be making large strides in reinstating its good name and appealing to car-shoppers."

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 44.0 percent in March 2010, down from 45.1 percent in March 2009 and down from 47.1 percent in February 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 94,100 units in March 2010, down 6.5 percent compared to March 2009 and up 11.7 percent from February 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 8.4 percent for Chrysler in March 2010, down from 11.8 percent in March 2009 and down from 10.8 percent as in February 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 201,100 units in March 2010, up 55.5 percent compared to March 2009 and up 43.3 percent from February 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 18.0 percent of new car sales in March 2010 for Ford, up from 15.1 percent in March 2009 and flat from 18.0 percent in February 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 197,200 units in March 2010, up 27.0 percent compared to March 2009 and up 39.3 percent from February 2010. GM's market share is expected to be 17.6 percent of new vehicle sales in March 2010, down from 18.2 percent in March 2009 and down from 18.2 percent in February 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 107,400 units in March 2010, up 21.5 percent from March 2009 and up 33.1 percent from February 2010. Honda’s market share is expected to be 9.6 percent in March 2010, down from 10.3 percent in March 2009 and down from 10.4 percent in February 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Hyundai will sell 91,600 units in March 2010, up 40.0 percent from March 2009 and up 57.8 percent from February 2010. Hyundai’s market share is expected to be 8.2 percent in March 2010, up from 7.7 percent in March 2009 and up from 7.5 percent in February 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 99,100 units in March 2010, up 48.7 percent from March 2009 and up 41.2 percent from February 2010. Nissan's market share is expected to be 8.9 percent in March 2010, up from 7.8 percent in March 2009 and down from 9.0 percent in February 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 182,100 units in March 2010, up 37.1 percent from March 2009 and up 82.0 percent from February 2010. Toyota's market share is expected to be 16.3 percent in March 2010, up from 15.5 percent in March 2009 and up from 12.9 percent in February 2010.