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Seasonal Sales Decrease in November Keeps Sales Pace at 12.2 Million

November 29, 2010

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — This month's new-car sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be approximately 865,500 units, a 17 percent increase from November 2009 but a 8.1 percent decrease from October 2010, according to Edmunds.com. Retail sales are expected to be approximately 700,000 units, down from approximately 778,000 last month.

Edmunds.com analysts predict that November's seasonally adjusted annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 12.2 million, essentially flat from October 2010. SAAR for retail sales is about 9.9 million, down slightly from last month.

Average automaker incentives in the U.S. are estimated to be $2,490 per vehicle sold in November 2010, up $51, or 2.1 percent, from October 2010, but down $284, or 8.6 percent, from November 2009.

“Seasonal fluctuations notwithstanding, we’re seeing some stability and consistency in the marketplace for the first time since the economic downturn,” commented Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “The automakers have realized that they can achieve profitability at this level of sales, and they seem to be settling into that reality.”

November 2010 had 24 selling days, one more than last November 2009. The chart below sets forth month-over-month comparisons:

 

Change from November 2009 (Adjusted for more selling days)

Change from November 2009 (Unadjusted for more selling days)

Change from October 2010 (Unadjusted for fewer selling days)

Chrysler

17.3%

22.4%

-15.4%

Ford

20.4%

25.6%

-2.0%

GM

6.9%

11.5%

-8.5%

Honda

11.4%

16.2%

-13.3%

Nissan

5.4%

10.0%

-12.4%

Toyota

-5.9%

-1.8%

-9.8%

Industry Total

12.1%

17.0%

-8.1%

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 45.5 percent in November 2010, up from 44.8 percent in November 2009 and up from 45.2 percent in October 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 75,900 units in November 2010, up 22.4 percent compared to November 2009 but down 15.4 percent from October 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 8.8 percent for Chrysler in November 2010, up from 8.4 percent in November 2009 but down from 9.5 percent as in October 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 149,900 units in November 2010, up 25.6 percent compared to November 2009 but down 2.0 percent from October 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 17.3 percent of new car sales in November 2010 for Ford, up from 16.1 percent in November 2009 and up from 16.2 percent in October 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 167,900 units in November 2010, up 11.5 percent compared to November 2009 but down 8.5 percent from October 2010. GM's market share is expected to be 19.4 percent of new vehicle sales in November 2010, down from 20.3 percent in November 2009 and down from 19.5 percent in October 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 85,700 units in November 2010, up 16.2 percent from November 2009 but down 13.3 percent from October 2010. Honda’s market share is expected to be 9.9 percent in November 2010, down from 10.0 percent in November 2009 and down from 10.5 percent in October 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 61,100 units in November 2010, up 10.0 percent from November 2009 but down 12.4 percent from October 2010. Nissan's market share is expected to be 7.1 percent in November 2010, down from 7.5 percent in November 2009 and down from 7.4 percent in October 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 131,300 units in November 2010, down 1.8 percent from November 2009 and down 9.8 percent from October 2010. Toyota's market share is expected to be 15.2 percent in November 2010, down from 18.1 percent in November 2009 and down from 15.5 percent in October 2010.

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