SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com reported today that it expects new light-vehicle sales (including fleet) to be 868,283 units, up 16 percent from November 2009 and a decrease of almost 9 percent from October 2010 (on an unadjusted basis).

The information Website, which specializes in new-car pricing, trends and forecasts, also offered additional insights in its November 2010 sales and incentives forecast. Here are the highlights:

• The November 2010 forecast translates into a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 12.23 million new car sales, nearly flat from 12.25 in October 2010, yet up from 10.92 in November 2009

• Retail sales are down nine percent compared to October 2010 and up nearly 17 percent from November 2009

• Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 21 percent of total industry sales in November 2010

• The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,712 in November 2010, which represents a jump of six percent from October 2010 and a slight increase of one percent from November 2009

• Used car sales* are estimated to be 2,598,805, up less than one percent from October 2010 and nearly flat from November 2009.  The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 3:1 for November 2010

"Several consecutive months of year-over-year retail sales improvements indicate that the recovery in consumer demand has not been a coincidence," said Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry trends and insight for TrueCar.com. "We have high expectations from December sales as year-end clearance events should drive the industry to its best unit sales total of the year. Based on this rising demand – as well as a slew of new products that will be hitting the marketplace – we have raised our 2011 forecast to 12.7 million units."

Forecasts for the top seven manufacturers for November 2010:

Unit Sales Forecast


Manufacturer

Nov. 2010 Forecast

Change vs. October 2010

Change vs. Nov. 2009

Chrysler

74,386

-17.5%

17.0%

Ford

151,657

-3.8%

28.3%

GM

170,585

-6.9%

13.7%

Honda

90,569

-8.3%

22.4%

Nissan

64,375

-7.7%

14.4%

Toyota

131,419

-9.7%

-1.7%

Hyundai/Kia

66,689

-9.7%

45.0%



 

 

Market Share Forecast


Manufacturer

November 2010 Forecast

October 2010

November 2009

Chrysler

8.6%

9.5%

8.5%

Ford

17.5%

16.6%

15.8%

GM

19.6%

19.3%

20.1%

Honda

10.4%

10.4%

9.9%

Nissan

7.4%

7.3%

7.5%

Toyota

15.1%

15.3%

17.9%

Hyundai/Kia

7.7%

7.8%

6.2%














Incentive Spending Forecast


Manufacturer

Nov. 2010 Incentives

Change vs. Oct. 2010

Change vs. Nov. 2009

Total Incentive Spending


Chrysler

$3,452

1.1%

-3.3%

$256,768,803

Ford

$2,942

6.5%

11.6%

$446,249,367

GM

$3,350

8.1%

-16.5%

$571,422,356

Honda

$2,162

6.9%

61.9%

$195,794,074

Nissan

$2,764

9.2%

1.7%

$177,901,297

Toyota

$2,220

4.8%

32.9%

$291,783,594

Hyundai/Kia

$1,801

7.1%

-11.6%

$120,128,159

Industry

$2,712

6.2%

0.8%

$2,354,776,202










TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.

TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macroeconomic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.

*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales.

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