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Black Book’s Index Records Largest Single-Month Increase Since 2012

October 04, 2017

LAWRENCEVILLE, Ga. — The replacement of the up to 500,000 vehicles damaged by Hurricane Harvey began last month, fueling the largest single-month increase in Black Book’s Used Vehicle Retention Index since March 2012.

The index increased from 112.6 to 113.9, with compact cars (up 2.8%), compact crossover SUVs (up 2.4%), full-size cars (up 2.5%), and mid-size cars (+2.3%) each realizing significant month-over-month increases within the index.

"We certainly anticipated a near-term increase in the index in last month's report, and with the storm replacement activity kicking in, we believe this activity will continue in the next month but not much longer,” said Anil Goyal, senior vice president of automotive valuation and analytics for Black Book. “We saw a nice bump in several car segments, and we also anticipate several truck segments to see increases as well, especially with the demand for service and construction vehicles. It was interesting that mainstream car segments and compact SUVs experienced the largest increase in immediate replacement demand."

The Index dates back to January 2005, when Black Book published a benchmark index value of 100 for the market. During 2008, the index dropped by 14.1%. In 2016, it fell another 6.4%. During 2011, the index rose strongly from 113.3 to 123 by the end of the year, as the economy picked up steam and used-vehicle values rose higher. It continued to remain relatively stable, rising slightly until May of 2014. That’s when it peaked at 128.1.

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