U.S. light-vehicle sales in November are on
pace with September and October, according to J.D. Power and Associates.
According to the company, three key factors are affecting November sales. First, on a seasonal
basis, November is historically weaker than October, which means if that
November's unit sales match October's, then the SAAR would be higher than
October's 15.4 million-unit seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR).
Second, Thanksgiving occurs late in the month, leaving November with fewer
selling days during the holiday shopping season, which should hold down the
SAAR. Finally, the average cash-plus-interest subvention, now at
approximately $1,200 per vehicle, continues well below the peak level set in
August when consumers saved an average of $1,480.
"We're in a period when consumers are starting to think more about
buying holiday gifts and less about buying new vehicles," said Walter
McManus, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and
Associates. "That, coupled with a traditionally slower selling month and
automakers continuing to pull back incentives, should keep new-vehicle sales
at about the same level they've been at for the past two months."
New-vehicle sales through the second week of November are down 6
percent from the same period last month and down 20 percent compared with
the same period last November.
Based on Power Information Network (PIN) retail sales data from the
first two weeks of the month, November sales are projected to come in at a
15.7 million-unit SAAR. Actual units sold in November are expected to reach
1.18 million.
October ended with actual sales of 1,302,494 units. In November
2001, 1,327,990 units were sold for a 17.6 million-unit SAAR.
The J.D. Power and Associates 2002 calendar-year new-vehicle sales
forecast is 16.6 million units.
The firm's monthly sales forecasts are derived from a joint effort
between its Global Forecasting Department and Power Information Network
(PIN), a division of J.D. Power and Associates that compiles new-vehicle
retail transaction data from more than 5,900 participating auto franchises
in 26 U.S. markets.
Headquartered in Westlake Village, Calif., J.D. Power and Associates
is a global marketing information services firm operating in key business
sectors including market research, forecasting, consulting, training and
customer satisfaction.
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