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Edmunds.com Forecasts September Auto Sales

September 28, 2007

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — This month's new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 1.29 million units, a 4.5-percent decrease from September 2006, according to Edmunds.com.

This September had 25 selling days, one less than September 2006. When adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 0.7 percent from September 2006.

Adjusted for less selling days, Chrysler’s sales were down 6.7 percent from last year, Ford’s were down 14.4 percent and Toyota’s dropped 0.4 percent. GM, Honda and Nissan’s sales were up, however, 0.8 percent, 16.3 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively.

"This month, the automakers with the most momentum are faring well even given the constraints of the marketplace," observed Jesse Toprak, executive director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com. "Especially in a soft market like this, compelling new products and effective marketing campaigns are the keys to success."

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors domestic nameplates is estimated to be 51.8 percent in September 2007, down from 54.6 percent in September 2006 and down slightly from 52.1 percent in August 2007.

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 152,000 units in September 2007, down 10.3 percent compared to September 2006 and down 9.9 percent from August 2007. This would result in a new car market share of 11.8 percent for Chrysler in September 2007, down from 12.5 percent in September 2006 and up slightly from 11.4 percent in August 2007.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 192,000 units in September 2007, down 17.7 percent compared to September 2006 and down 9.6 percent from August 2007. This would result in a market share of 14.9 percent of new car sales in September 2007 for Ford, down from 17.3 percent in September 2006 and up from 14.4 percent in August 2007.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 325,000 units in September 2007, down 3.1 percent compared to September 2006 and down 16 percent from August 2007. GM's market share is expected to be 25.2 percent of new vehicle sales in September 2007, up from 24.8 percent in September 2006 and down from 26.2 percent in August 2007.

"This week’s UAW strike doesn’t appear to have hurt GM's sales," commented Michelle Krebs, senior editor of Edmunds' AutoObserver.com. "The 1998 strike, which lasted for 54 days, was debilitating to GM. The automaker lost money and market share — share it never regained. But this time around, the strike was over well before GM’s inventory got low enough to frustrate shoppers.”

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