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Edmunds.com Predicts October has Lowest Sales Volume Since 1992

October 24, 2008

SANTA MONICA, Calif. -- October's new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 872,000 units, a 28.9 percent decrease from October 2007 and a 9.4 percent decrease from September 2008, according to Edmunds.com, an online resource for automotive information.

The sales prediction for October marks the lowest sales volume since January 1992, said Edmunds.com.

October 2008 had 27 selling days, one more than October 2007. When adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 31.6 percent from October 2007. (The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.)

"The typical Columbus Day weekend boost was almost imperceptible this year," observed Jesse Toprak, executive director of industry analysis for Edmunds.com. "Looking ahead, November is traditionally one of the worst sales months of the year, and December is usually one of the best. If the election and other variables don’t have a significant impact on auto sales through December, we are looking at an annual total of about 13.6 million units.”

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors domestic nameplates is estimated to be 45.5 percent in October 2008, down from 52.5 percent in October 2007 and down from 52.9 percent in September 2008.

"All of the frenzied speculation about the future of Detroit's automakers, ranging from mergers to bankruptcies, surely adds to the consumer's retreat from buying a car," commented Michelle Krebs, senior editor of Edmunds' AutoObserver.com. "That being said, Toyota's intensive marketing has had some impact, boosting the company's U.S. market share to over 19 percent for the first time ever."

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 90,000 units in October 2008, down 38.1 percent compared to October 2007 and down 16.0 percent from September 2008. This would result in a new car market share of 10.3 percent for Chrysler in October 2008, down from 11.8 percent in October 2007 and down from 11.1 percent in September 2008.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 124,000 units in October 2008, down 34.7 percent compared to October 2007 and up 4.9 percent from September 2008. This would result in a new car market share of 14.2 percent of new car sales in October 2008 for Ford, down from 15.5 percent in October 2007 and up from 12.3 percent in September 2008.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 183,000 units in October 2008, down 40.7 percent compared to October 2007 and down 35.5 percent from September 2008. GM's market share is expected to be 21.0 percent of new vehicle sales in October 2008, down from 25.1 percent in October 2007 and down from 29.4 percent in September 2008.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 95,000 units in October 2008, down 17.2 percent from October 2007 and down 1.6 percent from September 2008. Honda’s market share is expected to be 10.9 percent in October 2008, up from 9.4 percent in October 2007 and up from 10.0 percent in September 2008.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 60,000 units in October 2008, down 29.2 percent from October 2007 and up 0.9 percent from September 2008. Nissan's market share is expected to be 6.9 percent in October 2008, even from 6.9 percent in October 2007 and up from 6.2 percent in September 2008.

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 167,000 units in October 2008, down 15.5 percent from October 2007 and up 15.7 percent from September 2008. Toyota's market share is expected to be 19.1 percent in October 2008, up from 16.1 percent in October 2007 and up from 15.0 percent in September 2008.

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