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Edmunds.com Forecasts Not-So Thrilling
October Sales Month

October 29, 2010

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — This month's new-car sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be approximately 920,200 units, a 10.8 percent increase from October 2009 but a 3.4 percent decrease from September 2010, according to Edmunds.com.

Retail sales are expected to be approximately 754,000 units, down from approximately 765,000 last month.

Edmunds.com analysts predict that October's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for retail and fleet auto sales will be nearly 11.9 million, up from 11.7 in September 2010. SAAR for retail sales will be about 9.7 million, up from 9.4 million last month.

“This month’s SAAR is the highest since September 2008, not counting the Cash for Clunkers aberration,” Senior Analyst Ray Zhou told AutoObserver.com.

In September 2008, SAAR was 12.6 million. "In early October, dealership traffic was strong, but toward the end of the month consumers pulled back, perhaps waiting for Thanksgiving weekend deals," Zhou said.

Average automaker incentives in the U.S. are estimated to be $2,498 per vehicle sold in October 2010, down $61, or 2.4 percent, from September 2010, and down $172, or 6.4 percent, from October 2009.

“Consumers are being drawn to new models that have minimal incentives,” stated Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “It seems consumer confidence is returning a bit and some pent-up demand is being realized.”

October 2010 will have 27 selling days, one fewer than last October 2009. The chart below sets forth predicted month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons:

 

Change from October 2009
(Adjusted for fewer selling days)

Change from October 2009
(Unadjusted for fewer selling days)

Change from Sept 2010
(Unadjusted for more selling days)

Chrysler

45.3%

40.1%

-8.6%

Ford

22.1%

17.7%

-1.1%

GM

-0.4%

-3.9%

-2.1%

Honda

19.2%

15.0%

0.9%

Nissan

15.1%

11.0%

-10.3%

Toyota

-5.0%

-8.4%

-5.3%

Industry Total

14.9%

10.8%

-3.4%

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 45.1 percent in October 2010, up from 44.9 percent in October 2009 and up slightly from 45.0 percent in September 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 91,100 units in October 2010, up 40.1 percent compared to October 2009 but down 8.6 percent from September 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 9.9 percent for Chrysler in October 2010, up from 7.8 percent in October 2009 but down from 10.5 percent as in September 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 154,500 units in October 2010, up 17.7 percent compared to October 2009 but down 1.1 percent from September 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 16.8 percent of new car sales in October 2010 for Ford, up from 15.8 percent in October 2009 and up from 16.4 percent in September 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 169,400 units in October 2010, down 3.9 percent compared to October 2009 and down 2.1 percent from September 2010. GM's market share is expected to be 18.4 percent of new vehicle sales in October 2010, down from 21.2 percent in October 2009 but up from 18.2 percent in September 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 98,300 units in October 2010, up 15.0 percent from October 2009 and up 0.9 percent from September 2010. Honda’s market share is expected to be 10.7 percent in October 2010, up from 10.3 percent in October 2009 and up from 10.2 percent in September 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 66,600 units in October 2010, up 11.0 percent from October 2009 but down 10.3 percent from September 2010. Nissan's market share is expected to be 7.2 percent in October 2010, flat from 7.2 percent in October 2009 but down from 7.8 percent in September 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 139,400 units in October 2010, down 8.4 percent from October 2009 and down 5.3 percent from September 2010. Toyota's market share is expected to be 15.1 percent in October 2010, down from 18.3 percent in October 2009 and down from 15.4 percent in September 2010.

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