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September to Record Highest SAAR Since 2007, TrueCar Predicts

September 27, 2012

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com expects new light vehicle sales in September to reach 1.163 million units, a 10.5 percent increase from September 2011 but a 9.5 percent drop from August.

September’s forecast puts the SAAR for the month at 14.6 million new units, up from 13.1 million in September 2011 and up from 14.5 million in Aug. 2012. As for retail sales alone, TrueCar predicts an increase of 7.9 percent vs. September 2011. However, the vehicle information site predicts retail sales will fall 9.7 percent from the prior month.       

Additionally, fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 19.1 percent of total industry sales, according to TrueCar. The vehicle information site also put average incentive spending per unit at about $2,468 for the month, which represents a decrease of 6.7 percent from September 2011 and a decrease of 1.2 percent from August.

 

Estimates for the used-car segment are also promising, with TrueCar predicting sales to surpass 3.4 million, a 5.8 percent increase from Sept. 2011. If realized, however, that total would represent an 11.7 percent decrease from August 2012. The site also estimates the industry to sell one new vehicle for every three used vehicle sold.

 

“The SAAR range so far this year has been one of the tightest in the recent history, ranging in-between 13.8 and 15.1 million,” said Jesse Toprak, vice president of market intelligence at TrueCar.com. “Even though the lack of big movements in car sales makes for less attractive headlines, the stable growth in sales is a positive for the industry. The stability allows for the right production adjustments and price optimization, resulting in improved profitability.”

 

Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for September 2012:

 

Unit Sales

Manufacturer

September 2012 Forecast

% Change vs. August 2012

% Change vs. September 2011

Chrysler

137,612

-7.3%

8.1%

Ford

177,066

-10.0%

1.3%

GM

212,284

-11.7%

2.5%

Honda

113,439

-13.6%

26.7%

Hyundai/Kia

102,283

-8.0%

16.7%

Nissan

92,349

-6.3%

-0.7%

Toyota

161,201

-14.5%

32.7%

Volkswagen

48,304

-8.1%

31.4%

Industry

1,163,000

-9.5%

10.5%

 

 

 

 

Market Share

Manufacturer

September 2012 Forecast

August 2012

September 2011

Chrysler

11.8%

11.6%

12.1%

Ford

15.2%

15.3%

16.6%

GM

18.3%

18.7%

19.7%

Honda

9.8%

10.2%

8.5%

Hyundai/Kia

8.8%

8.7%

8.3%

Nissan

7.9%

7.7%

8.8%

Toyota

13.9%

14.7%

11.5%

Volkswagen

4.2%

4.1%

3.5%

 

 

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer

September 2012 Incentives

% Change vs. August 2012

% Change vs. September 2011

Total Spending

Chrysler

$3,256

0.9%

-3.1%

$448,124,788

Ford

$2,622

-1.9%

-7.8%

$464,217,015

GM

$3,008

-2.8%

-6.7%

$638,537,566

Honda

$2,270

-6.2%

-2.9%

$257,495,876

Hyundai/Kia

$1,294

8.9%

6.8%

$132,378,472

Nissan

$2,777

-3.9%

1.1%

$256,449,772

Toyota

$1,930

1.2%

-13.7%

$311,188,913

Volkswagen

$2,462

-1.5%

29.2%

$118,914,104

Industry

$2,468

-1.2%

-6.7%

$2,870,414,401

 

 

 

 

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