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TrueCar: November New-Car Sales Should Rise 13 Percent

November 29, 2012

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com predicted in its November sales and incentives forecast that the industry’s seasonally adjusted annual rate for November will be 15.2 million units, matching the rate realized in February 2008.

The vehicle information site’s forecast would push up November’s SAAR from 13.5 million in November 2011 and from 14.3 million in October 2012. The firm also expects new light vehicle sales to reach 1.12 million units, up 12.7 percent from November 2011 and up 2.6 percent from October 2012 (on an unadjusted basis).

TrueCar.com also found that retail sales are up 13.1 percent compared to November 2011, and up 6.3 percent from October 2012. Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 16.1 percent of total industry sales in November 2012.

The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,764 in November, which TrueCar analysts said represents an increase of 4.4 percent from November 2011 and an increase of 19.3 percent from October 2012.

Used-car sales are estimated to be approximately 2.69 million, up 3.8 percent from November 2011 and down 11.7 percent from October 2012. The ratio of new-to-used sales is estimated to be one to three for November.

“November was a strong month for new-car sales and the impact from hurricane Sandy helped to boost auto sales to its highest since February 2008,” said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for TrueCar.com. “Import automakers got the biggest lift due to some increased incentive spending building momentum heading into next year. We don’t expect any major impact on auto sales from the ongoing fiscal cliff discussions.”

Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for November 2012:

Unit Sales

Manufacturer

November 2012 
Forecast

% Change vs. 
October 2012

% Change vs. 
November 2011

Chrysler

126,615

0.3%

18.1%

Ford

168,963

0.6%

1.5%

GM

196,575

0.4%

9.0%

Honda

111,108

3.9%

32.4%

Hyundai/Kia

97,430

5.1%

12.5%

Nissan

86,527

8.6%

1.6%

Toyota

161,184

3.8%

16.8%

Volkswagen

47,264

2.7%

24.0%

Industry

1,120,088

2.6%

12.7%

 

 

Market Share

Manufacturer

November 2012 
Forecast

October 2012

November 2011

Chrysler

11.3%

11.6%

10.8%

Ford

15.1%

15.4%

16.7%

GM

17.5%

17.9%

18.2%

Honda

9.9%

9.8%

8.4%

Hyundai/Kia

8.7%

8.5%

8.7%

Nissan

7.7%

7.3%

8.6%

Toyota

14.4%

14.2%

13.9%

Volkswagen

4.2%

4.2%

3.8%

 

 

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer

November 2012 Incentives

% Change vs. 
October 2012

% Change vs. 
November 2011

Total Spending

Chrysler

 $2,526

-17.5%

-22.0%

 $336,881,432

Ford

 $2,307

-8.5%

-21.1%

 $377,069,384

GM

 $3,720

27.6%

20.0%

 $407,992,507

Honda

 $2,428

29.0%

4.1%

 $94,843,723

Hyundai/Kia

 $1,586

15.3%

29.2%

 $40,641,816

Nissan

 $4,273

79.9%

44.9%

 $619,374,848

Toyota

 $2,075

27.9%

9.2%

 $137,097,491

Volkswagen

 $2,259

-0.2%

-9.8%

 $23,816,988

Industry

 $2,764

19.3%

4.4%

 $3,095,719,104

 

 

 

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