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Edmunds.com Forecasts Best April for Car Sales Since 2007

April 25, 2013

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Edmunds.com expects new-car sales to reach 1.307 million units in April for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.2 million light vehicles.

If the firm’s prediction holds, the industry will have realized a 10.4 percent increase in sales vs. April 2012. Compared to March, sales would be down be down 10 percent. 

“We’re forecasting the best April car sales since 2007, and that’s consistent with the strong growth we’ve seen in the last several months,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “Sales are almost back to pre-recession levels, so as long as automakers keep reporting their best sales in at least five years, we’ll continue to be in good shape.”


SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume

Apr-13 Forecast

Apr-12

Mar-13

Change from Apr 2012*

Change from Mar 2013*

GM

237,835

213,387

245,950

11.5%

-3.3%

Ford

208,842

179,658

235,643

16.2%

-11.4%

Toyota

183,933

178,044

205,342

3.3%

-10.4%

Chrysler Group

156,194

141,165

171,603

10.6%

-9.0%

Honda

132,520

122,012

136,038

8.6%

-2.6%

Nissan

92,976

71,329

137,726

30.3%

-32.5%

Industry

1,306,901

1,183,866

1,452,269

10.4%

-10.0%

*NOTE: April 2013 had 25 selling days, April 2012 had 24 and March 2013 had 27.

 

Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 12.4 million vehicles in April, with fleet transactions accounting for 18.7 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.25 million used cars will be sold in April for a SAAR of 37.0 million (compared to 3.43 million – or a SAAR of 36.7 million – used car sales in March).

Leading the way, Edmunds.com projects, will be Nissan, which the firm expects will have a bigger year-over-year sales increase (30.3 percent) than any other major automaker. Nissan will achieve this distinction despite incurring the biggest sales decrease (down 32.5 percent) of any automaker from March to April. This anomaly can be attributed to Nissan’s annual practice of aggressively pushing sales to close out its fiscal year, which ended in March.

Market Share

Apr-13 Forecast

Apr-12

Mar-13

Change from April 2012
(Percentage pts.)

Change from March 2013
(Percentage pts.)

GM

18.2%

18.0%

16.9%

0.2%

1.3%

Ford

16.0%

15.2%

16.2%

0.8%

-0.2%

Toyota

14.1%

15.0%

14.1%

-1.0%

-0.1%

Chrysler Group

12.0%

11.9%

11.8%

0.0%

0.1%

Honda

10.1%

10.3%

9.4%

-0.2%

0.8%

Nissan

7.1%

6.0%

9.5%

1.1%

-2.4%

 

Edmunds.com also found that even as most automakers manage to increase sales year over year, Hyundai and Kia will stand out in April for delivering fewer sales than in 2012. As a result, Hyundai/Kia will see its U.S. sales share drop a full percentage point from 9.3 percent in April 2012 to 8.3 percent this month.

 

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