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Weather Pushing Down January Sales, Edmunds Says

January 30, 2014

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — The relentless blast of winter weather likely kept car shoppers away from dealerships in January, Edmunds.com said this week. The vehicle information site predicted that about 1.036 million new cars and trucks will be sold in in January, putting the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) at 15.6 million.

Edmunds’ sales projections represent a 23.6% decrease from December 2013 and a 0.6% decrease from January 2013.January’s weather complications mean that sales will likely be made up in February. Fortunately, officials said, car shoppers will find a friendly buying environment to make their big purchases.

"Even though 2013 year-end sales events have long passed, market conditions remain quite favorable for buyers," said Edmunds.com Chief Economist Lacey Plache. "In particular, interest rates, monthly lease payments and trade-in values are all at some of the best levels expected for the foreseeable future."

Plache cautions, however, that those strong buying conditions are bound to weaken. Auto loan rates, for example, are likely to rise in the near future, and trade-in values will likely soften as used-car inventories grow.

Edmunds.com estimates that the retail SAAR will come in at 12.9 million vehicles in January, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.3% of total sales. An estimated 2.89 million used cars will be sold in January, putting the used SAAR at 35.3 million (compared to 2.41 million — or a SAAR of 35.2 million — used car sales in December).

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume

Jan-14 Forecast

Jan-13

Dec-13

Change from Jan 2013*

Change from Dec 2013*

GM

176,541

194,699

230,157

-9.3%

-23.3%

Ford

155,819

165,863

216,592

-6.1%

-28.1%

Toyota

151,195

157,725

190,843

-4.1%

-20.8%

Chrysler Group

128,322

117,731

161,007

9.0%

-20.3%

Honda

98,066

93,626

135,255

4.7%

-27.5%

Nissan

88,070

80,919

109,758

8.8%

-19.8%

Hyundai/Kia

82,182

80,015

96,636

2.7%

-15.0%

VW/Audi

37,620

39,074

51,028

-3.7%

-26.3%

Industry

1,036,533

1,042,530

1,356,984

-0.6%

-23.6%

 

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market Share

Jan-14 Forecast

Jan-13

Dec-13

Change from
January 2013
(Percentage pts.)

Change from December 2013
(Percentage pts.)

GM

17.0%

18.7%

17.0%

-1.6%

0.1%

Ford

15.0%

15.9%

16.0%

-0.9%

-0.9%

Toyota

14.6%

15.1%

14.1%

-0.5%

0.5%

Chrysler Group

12.4%

11.3%

11.9%

1.1%

0.5%

Honda

9.5%

9.0%

10.0%

0.5%

-0.5%

Nissan

8.5%

7.8%

8.1%

0.7%

0.4%

Hyundai/Kia

7.9%

7.7%

7.1%

0.3%

0.8%

VW/Audi

3.6%

3.7%

3.8%

-0.1%

-0.1%

Comments

  1. 1. Mike Conn [ January 30, 2014 @ 01:14PM ]

    I'm glad someone was finally able figure this out. We had no idea.

 

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