Edmunds.com Forecasts June Sales up From Year-Ago Period, Down From May

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — This month's new-vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 992,500 units, a 16.6 percent increase from June 2009 but a 9.5 percent decrease from May 2010, according to Edmunds.com.

Edmunds.com analysts predict that June's seasonally adjusted annualized rate will be 11.2 million, down from 11.6 in May 2010.

"The industry is still recovering from the pull-ahead sales generated in March and over Memorial Day weekend, when automakers – led by Toyota – offered unseasonably high incentives and drew out a lot of bargain-hunting car buyers who may otherwise have waited to buy during the summer,” observed Jessica Caldwell, director of industry analysis for Edmunds.com.

June 2010 had 25 selling days, the same as last June 2009 (The chart below sets forth comparisons.)

“Especially in months like June when there is no special holiday weekend ‘sales event,’ a lot of new-car shoppers are shifting to lightly used cars, seeking value. There is optimistic talk of a groundswell of demand building, but that may be off the mark because of this substitution," commented Michelle Krebs, senior analyst of Edmunds' AutoObserver.com. "This hurts the automakers, but it presents a great opportunity for dealers, who typically make a much bigger profit on a used-car sale."

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 47.3 percent in June 2010, up from 46.1 percent in June 2009 but down from 47.4 percent in May 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 90,500 units in June 2010, up 33.2 percent compared to June 2009 but down 13.5 percent from May 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 9.1 percent for Chrysler in June 2010, up from 8.0 percent in June 2009 but down from 9.5 percent as in May 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 174,700 units in June 2010, up 16.8 percent compared to June 2009 but down 8.8 percent from May 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 17.6 percent of new car sales in June 2010 for Ford, the same percent as June 2009 and up from 17.5 percent in May 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 204,700 units in June 2010, up 17.2 percent compared to June 2009 but down 8.4 percent from May 2010. GM's market share is expected to be 20.6 percent of new vehicle sales in June 2010, up from 20.5 percent in June 2009 and up from 20.4 percent in May 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 108,400 units in June 2010, up 9.7 percent from June 2009 but down 7.5 percent from May 2010. Honda’s market share is expected to be 10.9 percent in June 2010, down from 11.6 percent in June 2009 but up from 10.7 percent in May 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 72,800 units in June 2010, up 24.9 percent from June 2009 but down 13.1 percent from May 2010. Nissan's market share is expected to be 7.3 percent in June 2010, up from 6.8 percent in June 2009 but down from 7.6 percent in May 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 143,200 units in June 2010, up 8.9 percent from June 2009 but down 12.0 percent from May 2010. Toyota's market share is expected to be 14.4 percent in June 2010, down from 15.4 percent in June 2009 and down from 14.8 percent in May 2010.