Black Book Warns of Seasonal Depreciation in October Report

LAWRENCEVILLE, Ga. — Black Book (div. Hearst Automotive) released its Used Vehicle Retention Index for October (116.3), reporting a 1.5% increase over the last 12 months (114.6) and a 0.2% change since September (116.0).

October’s used vehicle retention activity may have represented the last positive change of the 2018 campaign, as seasonal depreciation patterns began to take hold throughout the month, analysts said. Cars especially saw their run of positive changes begin to lose steam, with strong retention trends that persisted throughout much of the year. While most truck segments performed slightly better than cars, they still saw depreciation accelerate during the month.

The segments with the highest month-over-month gains in October’s index were:

• Compact CUV/SUV: 0.95%
• Subcompact Car: 0.88%
• Mid-size luxury CUV/SUV: 0.53%

The segments losing the most were:

• Full-size luxury CUV/SUV: -0.81%
• Premium sporty car: -0.46%
• Small pickup: -0.45%

The Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using Black Book’s published wholesale average value on two- to six-year-old used vehicles, as percent of original typically equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage, and condition.

“This Index data can be especially valuable this time of year because it is designed to give automotive professionals and portfolio managers an analytical look into the trends driving segment performance across cars and trucks,” said Anil Goyal, executive vice president of operations. “Particularly as we begin to close out the year, it’s important to leverage the Index data and related residual forecasts as dealers and lenders begin to look at their inventory and portfolio makeup, and whether to increase or decrease in any particular segment, and what they want that to look like heading into 2019.”

To review the October report in its entirety, click here.

Originally posted on Auto Dealer Today