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Every type of debt posted a quarter-over-quarter increase, with auto loan balances increasing by $22 billion ($93 billion from a year ago) to $1.16 trillion. Much of that growth was driven by originations, which totaled $142 billion. That’s the highest level recorded in the 18-year history of New York Fed’s data.
Transunion projects the auto loan delinquency rate for consumers with payments 60 or more days past due to close the year at 1.4%, the highest level since year-end 2009. Even with this increase, TransUnion said delinquency rates will remain well below levels observed during the last recession.
The average auto loan balance per consumer in the second quarter grew 2.7% from a year ago to a post-recession high of $18,177, according to TransUnion. Delinquencies were also up, although the firm said there’s no cause for concern.
Lease balances also skyrocketed in 2016's opening quarter, while subprime loan volumes showed double-digit growth. Delinquencies, however, remained in check, the firm reported.
High delinquency rates for auto loans and credit cards in the first quarter pushed national average delinquency rates to levels not seen in at least three years, according to TransUnion. Much of the increase can be attributed to the continued slump in oil prices and an increase in loans made to customers with nonprime credit.
TransUnion expects the average auto loan debt per borrower to increase to $18,509 by the end of 2016, a more than $3,500 increase since the Great Recession. The firm noted, however, that subprime auto loans still make up less than the 23.7% share recorded in the third quarter 2009.
Experian Automotive reported that outstanding loan balances are now up more than 53% from the post-recession low in 2010.
The Comptroller of the Currency warned in a speech delivered yesterday that the pace of auto lending reminds him of the mortgage industry in the run up to the 2009 financial crisis.
The total dollar volume for outstanding automotive loan balances grew by $92 million from the second quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2015, the largest dollar volume growth since 2006, according to a report from Experian Automotive.
According to TransUnion, the auto loan delinquency rate increased to 1.04 percent in the third quarter. However, the delinquency rate is still well below the third quarter average observed between 2007 and 2013.