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TrueCar.com Forecasts January Retail Sales, Incentives Spending

January 31, 2011

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com forecasts that retail sales for the top seven manufacturers will improve in January, compared to the year-ago period.

For January 2011, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 825,372 units, up 18 percent from January 2010 and down 28 percent from December 2010 (on an unadjusted basis).

The January 2011 forecast translates into a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 12.71 million new car sales, up slightly from 12.55 in December 2010 and up from 10.82 in January 2010.

Retail sales are down 28 percent compared to December 2010 and up 25 percent from January 2010.

Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 19 percent of total industry sales in January 2011.

The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,576 in January 2011, which represents a decrease of almost three percent from December 2010 and up one percent from January 2010.

Used car sales* is estimated to be 1.97 million, down 30 percent from December 2010 and up five percent from January 2010. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 3:1 for January 2011.

"2011 is off to a good start as the continued increase in retail sales from the same time period last year indicates that consumers are coming back to the showrooms," said Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry trends and insight for TrueCar.com. "The recovery in auto sales is fueled not only by pent-up demand but also by compelling new products and relative improvements in consumer confidence."

The charts below illustrate TrueCar.com’s forecasts for unit sales, market share and incentive spending for the top seven manufacturers for January 2011:

Unit Sales Forecast

Manufacturer

Jan. 2011 Forecast

% Change vs. Dec. 2010

% Change vs. Jan. 2010

Chrysler

72,901

-27.6%

27.6%

Ford

134,697

-29.2%

20.1%

GM

159,547

-28.8%

9.6%

Honda

86,942

-32.9%

28.8%

Hyundai/Kia

58,462

-22.3%

11.1%

Nissan

67,367

-28.1%

7.7%

Toyota

127,562

-28.1%

29.1%

Industry

825,372

-27.9%

18.2%






 

Market Share Forecast


Manufacturer

January 2011 Forecast

December 2010

January 2010


Chrysler

8.8%

8.8%

8.2%


Ford

16.3%

16.6%

16.1%


GM

19.3%

19.6%

20.8%


Honda

10.5%

11.3%

9.7%


Hyundai/Kia

7.1%

6.6%

7.5%


Nissan

8.2%

8.2%

9.0%


Toyota

15.5%

15.5%

14.1%







 

Incentive Spending Forecast


Manufacturer

Jan. 2011 Incentives

Change vs. Dec. 2010

Change vs. Jan. 2010

Total Spending


Chrysler

$3,557

-5.4%

2.8%

$259,332,192


Ford

$2,641

-1.7%

-2.8%

$355,794,690


GM

$3,089

-4.2%

-2.4%

$492,873,703


Honda

$2,074

-6.2%

45.0%

$180,306,269


Hyundai/Kia

$1,727

9.9%

-18.0%

$100,960,460


Nissan

$2,763

-1.6%

-7.6%

$186,150,424


Toyota

$2,179

-3.0%

37.5%

$277,912,380


Industry

$2,576

-2.5%

1.3%

$2,125,884,134


 

TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com.

TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macroeconomic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.

* Used-car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales.

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