IRVINE, Calif. — Kelley Blue Book’s 2012 Residual Analysis Report showed that Toyota’s entire lineup for 2012 is expected to retain the greatest amount of its original value after five years. The results of that analysis led KBB to name Toyota and its Lexus brand as 2012 winner of the site’s
Both brands regain the titles they claimed from Kelley Blue Book back in 2010. Across its fleet, Toyota improved its 60-month average residual value by 2 percentage points compared to its 2011 average, allowing the company to best last years' winner, Subaru, and a few others for KBB’s award.
"Despite Toyota's success in the 2012 residual rankings, the company lost market share in the U.S. due to its supply shortage following the earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. The challenge for Toyota next year will be to regain this share without depressing its residual values," said Eric Ibara, director of residual consulting, Kelley Blue Book. "A number of actions that could quickly increase sales and market share also could jeopardize its residual value crown, including over incentivizing and increasing daily rental volume. Clearly, Toyota's actions through the next year will be pivotal in shaping its future direction."
Based on vehicle sales and overall economic factors, Kelley Blue Book's 60-month residual values for 2012 model-year vehicles are forecasted to average 35.5 percent of their original MSRP after five years of ownership, up just 1.5 percentage points from last year. The 60-month residual value increased by 0.9 percentage points for the light-car segment and 3.0 percentage points for the truck segment.
With the exception of vans and hybrid utilities, the average segment residual value for all truck segments, including SUVs and full-size trucks are projected to be higher than the average residual value in every car segment, except for high-performance cars, according to Kelly Blue Book. The truck segment is projected to maintain 38 percent of its value after 60 months, while the car segment is expected to maintain just 34 percent. Only two segments, the near-luxury segment and the sports-car segment, declined on a year-over-year basis.
Gas prices and catastrophic natural disasters played a significant role in new-vehicle sales and strong swings in vehicle segment preference throughout the year, according to Kelly Blue Book. Other key factors affecting the future values of 2012 model-year vehicles include unemployment, a stagnant housing forecast and some of the lowest consumer confidence numbers seen in decades.
The unemployment rate remains at 9 percent heading into 2012, but forecast have the rate dropping to 8.7 percent next year. Those that are out of work are finding it more difficult to find jobs, with an average 41 weeks unemployed, according to the company.
Kelley Blue Book projects that 2011 will close with 12.5 million vehicles sold, a one million-unit increase from 2010. A similar increase is projected for 2012.
As the Japanese get back into full production in the new year, KBB said it expects a pickup in sales activity as consumers waiting on the sidelines get back into the game. With an expectation for some increased consumer spending, Kelley Blue Book is forecasting 13.5 million in vehicle sales for 2012.