TrueCar.com Forecasts Lower New, Used Sales Despite Incentives Boost

Despite incentives picking up in July, TrueCar.com expects new- and used-vehicle sales to be down 0.9 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively.

by Staff

August 2, 2011

2 min to read

SANTA MONICA, Calif. —TrueCar.com said it anticipates both new- and used-vehicle sales to be down from last month, while the industry average incentive spending per unit is expected to be up.

New light vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to be 1,041,435 units in July, down 0.8 percent from June 2010 and down 0.9 percent on a month-over-month basis. The vehicle pricing and trends Website also anticipates fleet and rental sales will make up 17 percent of total industry sales for July 2011,

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) is expected to reach 11.4 million new-car sales, down from 11.5 million last month and down from 11.6 million during the year-ago period.

Used-car sales are estimated to reach 4,052,086, up 2.3 percent from July 2010 and down 1.8 percent from June 2011. The site also reported that four used vehicles are being sold for every new vehicle sold.

Additionally, the average incentive spend per unit is expected to reach approximately $2,418 in July, an increase of 0.7 percent from June 2011 and a 15.1 percent decrease from July 2010. The increase comes despite retail sales decreasing 2.4 percent compared to July 2010 and 0.4 percent from last month.

“Incentives remained relatively flat compared to last month, but as inventories continue to build, automakers will need to increase incentive spending for the rest of the year to help spur some demand.”

TrueCar.com’s forecast is based on actual transaction data that is refined by other factors including sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data, according to the company. The forecast is not adjusted for selling days in year-over-year percentage changes.

Unit Sales Forecast
Manufacturer	July 2011 Forecast	% Change vs. June 2011	% Change vs. July 2010
Chrysler	108,702	-8.3%	16.5%
Ford	183,360	-5.2%	10.5%
GM	212,661	-1.2%	6.7%
Honda	84,739	1.0%	-24.6%
Hyundai/Kia	108,596	4.2%	21.3%
Nissan	76,726	6.7%	-6.8%
Toyota	112,824	1.7%	-33.3%
Industry	1,041,345	-0.9%	-0.8%

Market Share Forecast
Manufacturer	July 2011 Forecast	June 2011	July 2010
Chrysler	10.4%	11.3%	8.9%
Ford	17.6%	18.4%	15.8%
GM	20.4%	20.5%	19.0%
Honda	8.1%	8.0%	10.7%
Hyundai/Kia	10.4%	9.9%	8.5%
Nissan	7.4%	6.8%	7.8%
Toyota	10.8%	10.6%	16.1%

Incentive Spending Forecast
Manufacturer	July 2011 Incentives	% Change vs. June 2011	% Change vs. July 2010	Total Spending
Chrysler	$3,162	2.2%	-13.5%	$326,530,001
Ford	$2,747	4.0%	-10.3%	$471,037,118
GM	$3,026	2.7%	-20.8%	$659,586,739
Honda	$1,901	7.6%	-14.8%	$161,057,011
Hyundai/Kia	$1,452	6.4%	-28.4%	$165,442,341
Nissan	$2,412	8.9%	-23.2%	$173,745,206
Toyota	$1,942	2.7%	-4.0%	$201,905,103
Industry	$2,418	0.7%	-15.1%	$2,518,413,792