This year's U.S. vehicle sales likely will decline 1.8 percent and possibly even more if the nation goes to war with Iraq, but should remain strong by historical standards, the National Automobile Dealers Association predicted, according to an Associated Press report.

NADA chief economist Paul Taylor, speaking at the organization's 86th annual convention Feb. 2, projected new car and light truck sales of 16.5 million in 2003, down from 16.8 million last year, the fourth-best tally on record. If the U.S. goes to war with Iraq, Taylor says total volume likely will decline by another 200,000 vehicles as the conflict chills Americans' spending.

His predictions are in line with most industry forecasts, which range from 15.9 million to some 17 million, AP reported.

"Given that the preceding four years were the best in the history of automotive retailing, there's momentum for the long-run," Taylor said. "Positive underlying economic fundamentals are working in the industry's favor."

Some of the 25,000 dealers and industry observers here said they've been encouraged by recent economic indicators, such as Jan. 31's news that Americans boosted their spending in December by the largest amount in five months, AP reported.