Cox Automotive October Forecast: New-Vehicle Inventory Levels Are Improving, But Sales Remain Low
According to the Cox Automotive forecast released today, October’s U.S. new-vehicle sales volume is expected to rise over 4% from last year and finish with 1.11 million units sold, delivering a sales pace for October of 14.3 million.
According to the Cox Automotive forecast released today, October’s U.S. new-vehicle sales volume is expected to rise over 4% from last year and finish with 1.11 million units sold, delivering a sales pace for October of 14.3 million.
IMAGE: Cox Automotive
COX AUTOMOTIVE – October U.S. auto sales, when confirmed next week, are expected to show an increased selling pace compared to last month and last year. According to the Cox Automotive forecast released today, October’s U.S. new-vehicle sales volume is expected to rise over 4% from last year and finish with 1.11 million units sold, delivering a sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), for October of 14.3 million.
A sales pace of 14.3 million would be the fastest pace since April and a nice uptick from September’s 13.5 million level.
“This gain may sound like a treat, but it is more likely a statistical trick,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “It seems more likely that the statistical adjustments made to reflect an additional selling day are lifting the SAAR rather than a noticeable uptick in sales across the marketplace.”
Sales Pace Likely Reflecting Improved New-Vehicle Inventory Levels
In terms of volume, October is expected to be very similar to every other month since August 2021 – and that is to finish with a final sales volume close to 1.11 million units. However, the new-vehicle market in October 2022 is in a better place than it was one year ago. Last October, the market suffered from a severe lack of product, with national new-vehicle inventory levels hovering close to 1 million units, and the sales pace was only 13.2 million. Inventories have improved since then, particularly over the last three months, and the recent sales pace is likely a reflection of greater product availability at some dealers.
Chesbrough notes: “The vehicle market is being supported by improving inventories and product selection for some, but not all, brands. However, rising interest rates are pushing monthly payments higher for everyone, and many potential buyers are being knocked out of the market.”
October 2022 U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Forecast Highlights
Volume is expected to rise 4.4% from October 2021 but decline 1.3% from last month.
The October 2022 SAAR is forecast at 14.3 million, above last year’s 13.2 million level and up from last month’s 13.5 million pace.
October 2022 had 26 selling days, one more than September, one less than October 2021.
October 2022 U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.
More Auto Finance
Dealerships Are Paying the Price for Extended Car Loans
Growing negative-equity scenarios mean such lengthy terms should be addressed in a forward-looking way to make them work for the dealer and the consumer down the road.
Read More →
Trade-Ins in Negative Equity Reach New Heights
As such trade-ins rise in frequency, so do monthly loan payment amounts and interest rates, according to second-quarter data compiled by Edmunds.
Read More →
Auto Credit Plentiful
June numbers show lenders are readily granting access, including to risky borrowers, as consumers leverage themselves to take on high prices.
Read More →
Automotive Consumers Sink Further in Debt
Most financing metrics hit records in the second quarter as more buyers locked themselves into long terms and high monthly payments.
Read More →
Porsche Financial Services Shifts Structure
After 36 years with Porsche, the Financial Services Chief Financial Officer Konrad Riedl is retiring, and the department is realigning its management structure.
Read More →
Tariffs Could Raise Insurance Premiums
As U.S. import tariffs affect repair costs, consumers might find it more affordable to replace a damaged vehicle, according to recent Insurify tariff analysis.
Read More →
Smaller Loans, Longer Terms
The youngest generation of car buyers is more likely to finance less expensive vehicles, more than half of generation Z consumers borrowing less than $25,000.
Read More →
New Cars a Tad More Affordable
May averages show that combined circumstances gave auto consumers slightly better buying power for the month, though average prices were up year-over-year.
Read More →
First-Quarter Sees Long Auto Loan Growth
Experian data show more consumers are tapping the method, along with refinancings, to afford buying. Meanwhile, subprime borrowers are getting more access.
Read More →
Mastering Credit Friction
In this video, Josh Krach explains how to turn credit friction into an advantage.
Read More →