Despite the uncertain United States economy, new statistics from the Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association (MEMA) suggest a more positive picture. The latest figures show that aftermarket product sales in the U.S. reached $136.6 billion in 2000 - up 1.6 percent from 1999.

Although this was a "modest increase", MEMA predicts brighter days are ahead for aftermarket parts manufacturers and is forecasting sales to reach $155.1 billion in 2003.

"The $136.6 billion in aftermarket parts represents nearly 13 percent of the entire $1 trillion world automotive products market," said Frank Hampshire, MEMA's director of research. "These numbers prove that the aftermarket industry certainly plays a major role in the health of the North American, as well as global economy."

The U.S. aftermarket figures account for 47 percent of the global aftermarket vehicle parts market which totals more than $291 billion. When added to the $753 billion global OEM parts figure, the world vehicle market parts total is more than $1.045 trillion, according to MEMA.

Hampshire noted that the global OEM vehicle part total rose 6 percent in 2000 from the prior year.

The rise in new-vehicle sales that followed the end of an economic slowdown in the early 1990s gave rise to a frenzy of car and light truck purchases that included both new and used vehicles, according to Hampshire.

"For most of these car buyers, the vehicles were essentially seen as new and a great deal of time, care and preventative maintenance were given to them regardless of age," Hampshire said. "However, like the 'seven-year itch' you might have in a marriage, over time, this romance has faded," he said. "As a result, the artificial bump in aftermarket sales that began in 1993 was naturally followed by a rebound suppression that hit in 2000, causing what some have called an aftermarket slump. In actuality, this slump is simply the expected return to trend-line."

The perception of a slowdown was escalated by other factors such as the early onset of winter and higher than usual fuel prices which caused a decrease in the number of vehicle miles traveled in 2000. For the year, cumulative miles driven reached 2.68 trillion miles, a 0.1 percent decline from 1999 levels.

Brighter Days Ahead?

The increase in new-vehicle sales that began in 1993 created a wave of sales that continued to the end of 2000, Hampshire said.

"The beginning of that wave, which began eight years ago, is about to pass into the prime aftermarket region of vehicles out of warranty and approaching 100,000 miles on the odometer," Hampshire said. "Over the next few years, the boom in new vehicle sales we experienced in the 1990s will result in a healthier aftermarket parts market."

Hampshire predicted that the boom will cause the vehicle population in the prime range to grow by approximately 1.5 million units over the next eight or more years. This will result in aftermarket product sales in the United States rising to $140.7 billion in 2001, an increase of 3 percent. The growth will continue in 2002, rising another 5 percent to $147.7 billion, followed by another 5 percent in 2003 to $155.1 billion.

Quantifying the aftermarket is far more difficult than estimating sales of motor vehicle and original equipment parts, Hampshire noted. "Even the narrowest possible definition of the aftermarket encompasses hundreds of thousands of individual enterprises, ranging from nationwide retail chains to corner garages and parts stores," he said. "No single comprehensive survey could capture all of these variables."

Estimating aftermarket parts dollar volume involves integrating data from multiple sources.

MEMA utilises a limited sample survey to determine per-job parts and labour expenditures and combines these findings with a consumer survey with an annual sample of 200,000 households to estimate frequency of repair. Multiplying the number of vehicles on the road by survey-derived estimates of costs and service and repair frequencies results in the estimate of total aftermarket volume.

Government estimates of miles driven and commercially available vehicle registration data are also incorporated to provide a model that uses vehicle population, usage and durability to estimate structural demand for aftermarket parts.

"By incorporating these complex factors, we believe we have the most credible and realistic figures in the industry," Hampshire said.