NADA Maintains 17.7 Million Sales Forecast for 2016
Despite current economic and political uncertainties, the NADA is sticking with its original sales forecast of 17.7 million news cars and light trucks for 2016. The association's chief economist, however, predicted that total sales will drop to 17.1 million units in 2017, noting that most of the pent-up demand from the Great Recession has been satisfied.
MCLEAN, Va. — The National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) is sticking to its initial forecast of 17.7 million news cars and light trucks for 2016, despite current economic and political uncertainties.
“We’ve had six straight years of steadily rising sales, which has been a fantastic period of growth, and vehicles per household have returned to the same level prior to the Great Recession,” said NADA Chief Economist Steven Szakaly at the Center for Automotive Research Management Briefing Seminars in Traverse City, Mich., on Tuesday. “But most pent up demand has been satisfied. For 2017, we expect new-vehicle sales to reach 17.1 million units.”
Szakaly listed the rising employment rate, leases, and cheap gas and diesel prices as reasons why sales will remain strong throughout 2016.
“For 2016, light trucks will account for about 59% of the new-vehicle sales market and cars will account for 41%,” he said. “Leases are increasing, which now accounts for more than 34% of the market."
He added that although interest rates on auto loans are expected to increase by about 0.50%, consumers shouldn’t notice the change due to automakers rolling out incentives to counteract the higher rate.
While slightly higher interest rates won’t do much to curtail new-vehicle sales, Szakaly did have some ideas of what could. “The aging vehicle fleet discourages long-term vehicle sales; average loans terms for new vehicles have risen to 68 months; and new-vehicle transaction prices are continuing to rise, up about 3% this year, while wages remain stagnant.”
Millennials, he concluded, will be the greatest growth factor for new-vehicle sales in the foreseeable future. “Until millennials come of age with higher wages, get married and have children, the auto industry will experience stagnant growth periods.”
More Auto Finance

Auto Credit Plentiful
June numbers show lenders are readily granting access, including to risky borrowers, as consumers leverage themselves to take on high prices.
Read More →
Automotive Consumers Sink Further in Debt
Most financing metrics hit records in the second quarter as more buyers locked themselves into long terms and high monthly payments.
Read More →
Porsche Financial Services Shifts Structure
After 36 years with Porsche, the Financial Services Chief Financial Officer Konrad Riedl is retiring, and the department is realigning its management structure.
Read More →
Tariffs Could Raise Insurance Premiums
As U.S. import tariffs affect repair costs, consumers might find it more affordable to replace a damaged vehicle, according to recent Insurify tariff analysis.
Read More →
Smaller Loans, Longer Terms
The youngest generation of car buyers is more likely to finance less expensive vehicles, more than half of generation Z consumers borrowing less than $25,000.
Read More →
New Cars a Tad More Affordable
May averages show that combined circumstances gave auto consumers slightly better buying power for the month, though average prices were up year-over-year.
Read More →
First-Quarter Sees Long Auto Loan Growth
Experian data show more consumers are tapping the method, along with refinancings, to afford buying. Meanwhile, subprime borrowers are getting more access.
Read More →
Mastering Credit Friction
In this video, Josh Krach explains how to turn credit friction into an advantage.
Read More →
April Less Affordable
Based on prices, reduced incentives and slower household income growth, consumers found it more challenging to buy new last month, Cox Automotive reported.
Read More →
Auto Lenders, Consumers on a Tightrope
April borrowing data shows that more consumers are bending over backward to buy vehicles, though subprime lending cooled off for the month.
Read More →