The war with Iraq is likely to depress vehicle sales this year, a trend that started weeks ago and has been particularly evident in areas with large military installations, according to an Associated Press report.

National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Chief Economist Paul Taylor projected last month that new car and light truck sales would be 16.3 million this year if the United States went to war with Iraq. His prediction without a war was 16.5 million. He said March 20 he's sticking with the 16.3 million forecast, even though it's on the high side of many revised estimates, according to AP.

Total U.S. light vehicle sales were 16.8 million in 2002, compared with 17.2 million in 2001, the second-best year ever. Skittish consumers, a harsh winter and war worries have contributed to a nearly 5 percent decline in new vehicle sales this year, AP said.

Taylor said much of the recent decline has been geographically concentrated in regions with large military bases, such as parts of Virginia, the Carolinas, Texas, Louisiana and California. "No one's going to buy a new vehicle and then be shipped overseas and leave their family with that kind of debt," said Gary Wayne Sams, general sales manager at Wray Ford in Bossier City, La. Wray Ford does 25 percent to 30 percent of its business with those stationed at nearby Barksdale Air Force Base, home to the nation's largest fleet of bombers, according to AP.