Retail new-vehicle sales are on track for a down October, according to JD Power and GlobalData forecasters, who estimate a 1.4% year-over-year drop.

The forecast also projects the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate is down by 200,000 units from a year ago to 13 million. Both figures are adjusted for selling days.

Total sales of both retail and nonretail units are forecast as essentially flat, or a 0.2% bump to 1.3 million units and a SAAR of 15.6 million, also flat.

JD Power pointed out that sales also fell last October after a September surge in electric-vehicle transactions as consumers raced to buy before the federal EV tax credit expired.

The company put a positive spin on this month’s sales. “October results reflect the continued resilience of new-vehicle demand,” said President of OEM Solutions Thomas King.

But he acknowledged that consumer “affordability remains a headwind.”

That’s seen in part in the average monthly payment, which the forecasters expect to be up nearly 3% despite average transaction prices being flat.

JD Power blames higher interest rates and lower trade-in equity. In fact, right at 30% of this month’s trade-ins are projected to be under water, up nearly a percentage point from a year ago.

It projects this month’s average interest rate to be up 19 basis points to 6.8%. The forecast estimates 13% of new-vehicle loans will be signed for terms of 84 months or longer, also up about a percentage point from last October.

“To offset the affordability challenges, manufacturers are leaning harder into discounts to keep buyers in the market,” King said. “Average incentive spending per vehicle is trending towards $3,304, a 13.1% increase from a year ago and the largest increase in the past four months.”