TrueCar Predicts 17 Percent Increase in August Sales

TrueCar puts August’s seasonally adjusted annual rate at 14.2 million despite spotting a 6 percent drop in incentive spending.

by Staff

August 30, 2012

2 min to read

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — According to TrueCar.com’s August forecast, the industry should realize a 17.2 percent increase vs. a year ago in new light-vehicle sales. Compared to July, sales should be up 8.9 percent.

The month’s forecast translates into a SAAR of 14.2 million, up from 12.1 million in August 2011 and up from 14.1 million in July 2012. Additionally, retail sales are up 14.3 percent compared to August 2011, and up 9.7 percent from July 2012. Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 18.1 percent of total industry sales in August.

The vehicle information site’s expects these increases despite incentive spending falling 6 percent from August 2011 to $2,457. That also represents a 2 percent decline from July 2012.

“Incentive spending in August is around the lowest level we have seen this year and has decreased for the fourth consecutive month,” said Kristen Andersson, senior analyst at TrueCar.com. “Automakers continue to optimize incentives and spend less, dollars wise, despite the big push this month to sell down inventory on older models.”

TrueCar also estimated that the industry will sell 3.99 million used cars, up 4.7 percent from August 2011 and down 13.3 percent from July 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1-to-4 for the month.

“While the overall economy remains at a standstill, auto sales continue to be strong as August marks the third straight month of SAAR over 14 million,” said Jesse Toprak, vice president of market intelligence for TrueCar.com. “Domestics continue to lose market share as the strength of the Japanese recovery continues. Volkswagen is quietly becoming a serious player whose growth can’t be ignored.”

Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for August 2012:

Unit Sales

Manufacturer	August 2012 Forecast	Percent Change vs. July 2012	Percent Change vs. August 2011
Chrysler	142,593	13.1%	9.6%
Ford	191,456	10.4%	9.5%
GM	227,087	12.8%	3.9%
Honda	133,458	14.1%	62.1%
Hyundai/Kia	117,212	6.5%	17.6%
Nissan	97,022	-1.3%	6.0%
Toyota	182,896	10.9%	41.3%
Volkswagen	47,069	-3.4%	32.8%
Industry	1,255,392	8.9%	17.2%

Market Share

Manufacturer	August 2012 Forecast	July 2012	August 2011
Chrysler	11.4%	10.9%	12.1%
Ford	15.3%	15.0%	16.3%
GM	18.1%	17.5%	20.4%
Honda	10.6%	10.1%	7.7%
Hyundai/Kia	9.3%	9.5%	9.3%
Nissan	7.7%	8.5%	8.5%
Toyota	14.6%	14.3%	12.1%
Volkswagen	3.7%	4.2%	3.3%