TrueCar Predicts 17 Percent Increase in August Sales
TrueCar puts August’s seasonally adjusted annual rate at 14.2 million despite spotting a 6 percent drop in incentive spending.
SANTA MONICA, Calif. — According to TrueCar.com’s August forecast, the industry should realize a 17.2 percent increase vs. a year ago in new light-vehicle sales. Compared to July, sales should be up 8.9 percent.
The month’s forecast translates into a SAAR of 14.2 million, up from 12.1 million in August 2011 and up from 14.1 million in July 2012. Additionally, retail sales are up 14.3 percent compared to August 2011, and up 9.7 percent from July 2012. Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 18.1 percent of total industry sales in August.
The vehicle information site’s expects these increases despite incentive spending falling 6 percent from August 2011 to $2,457. That also represents a 2 percent decline from July 2012.
“Incentive spending in August is around the lowest level we have seen this year and has decreased for the fourth consecutive month,” said Kristen Andersson, senior analyst at TrueCar.com. “Automakers continue to optimize incentives and spend less, dollars wise, despite the big push this month to sell down inventory on older models.”
TrueCar also estimated that the industry will sell 3.99 million used cars, up 4.7 percent from August 2011 and down 13.3 percent from July 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1-to-4 for the month.
“While the overall economy remains at a standstill, auto sales continue to be strong as August marks the third straight month of SAAR over 14 million,” said Jesse Toprak, vice president of market intelligence for TrueCar.com. “Domestics continue to lose market share as the strength of the Japanese recovery continues. Volkswagen is quietly becoming a serious player whose growth can’t be ignored.”
Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for August 2012:
Unit Sales
Manufacturer | August 2012 Forecast | Percent Change vs. July 2012 | Percent Change vs. August 2011 |
Chrysler | 142,593 | 13.1% | 9.6% |
Ford | 191,456 | 10.4% | 9.5% |
GM | 227,087 | 12.8% | 3.9% |
Honda | 133,458 | 14.1% | 62.1% |
Hyundai/Kia | 117,212 | 6.5% | 17.6% |
Nissan | 97,022 | -1.3% | 6.0% |
Toyota | 182,896 | 10.9% | 41.3% |
Volkswagen | 47,069 | -3.4% | 32.8% |
Industry | 1,255,392 | 8.9% | 17.2% |
Market Share
Manufacturer | August 2012 Forecast | July 2012 | August 2011 |
Chrysler | 11.4% | 10.9% | 12.1% |
Ford | 15.3% | 15.0% | 16.3% |
GM | 18.1% | 17.5% | 20.4% |
Honda | 10.6% | 10.1% | 7.7% |
Hyundai/Kia | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.3% |
Nissan | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
Toyota | 14.6% | 14.3% | 12.1% |
Volkswagen | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% |
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