FI showroom red and grey logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Used-Vehicle Market Bracing for Off-Lease Tidal Wave

While low interest rates and consistent values are making it possible for the market to absorb the wave of newer, more expensive off-lease vehicles, demand for older, less expensive vehicles hasn't waned. But with fewer older vehicles available, sellers will be at a disadvantage, Edmunds said this week.

by Staff
February 16, 2017
Used-Vehicle Market Bracing for Off-Lease Tidal Wave

 

2 min to read


SANTA MONICA, Calif. — A record number of newer model-year, off-lease vehicles returning to dealer lots this year will be putting significant upward pressure on the late-model used market, according to Edmunds' February used-vehicle report.

Along with the expected influx of newer model-year, off-lease vehicles, less people are expected to trade in a car during a new-car purchase, further adding to the upward pressure on the late-model pre-owned market, the firm added.

Ad Loading...

"While low interest rates and consistent values are making it possible for the market to absorb these newer, more expensive off-lease vehicles, demand for older, less expensive used vehicles hasn't waned," said Edmunds Senior Analyst Ivan Drury. "Fewer older vehicles available puts sellers at an advantage, particularly those looking to sell vehicles that are in high demand like trucks and SUVs."

In 2016, approximately 45% of car buyers traded in a vehicle during their new-car purchase. In 2017, that number is expected to drop to 43%, which could result in the number of trade-ins falling below 6 million this year — a scenario that has not occurred since 2012, Edmunds noted.

In 2016, approximately 38.5 million used vehicles were sold, an increase of 0.6% from 2015. Franchise used-vehicle sales amounted to approximately 11.6 million, an increase of 1.5% despite fewer trade-ins on new-vehicle sales, according to the firm. And of those franchised used-vehicle sales, 58% were used vehicles that were three years old or newer, the firm added.

Additionally, due to the rise in leasing, the average age of a used vehicle sold by a franchise dealer in 2016 came in at a record-low 4.1 years old. The average vehicle transaction price for the used segment also saw a record in 2016, a record-high of $19,189.

To find this data, Edmunds analysts looked at lease rates from 2014 to get a rough estimate of how many vehicles should be expected to return to dealers in 2017. Lease volume was 10.6% higher in 2014 compared to 2013. And since lease volumes also saw year-over-year growth in 2015 and 2016, newer-model lease returns are expected to rise for the next couple of years. As a result, used-vehicle ages are expected to continue to get younger — and, conversely, the availability of late-model used cars is expected to continue to decline — for the foreseeable future, according to Edmunds data.  

More Auto Finance

Auto Financeby Lauren LawrenceFebruary 23, 2026

Auto Loan Forecast Bucks Market Trend

Auto loan originations rose over 6% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, but TransUnion predicts a slight decline in auto loan growth this year, making it an outlier in the company's overall lending forecast.

Read More →
Auto Financeby Hannah MitchellFebruary 11, 2026

Auto Credit More Plentiful

Growing access shows greater lender appetite for risk as consumers take on heavier debt burden in an inflated market.

Read More →
Auto Financeby Hannah MitchellJanuary 27, 2026

Auto Loans Long as Stretch Limos

More consumers, faced with ever-rising car prices, are adapting by agreeing to longer loan terms despite the cost of added interest payments.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
A person holds a stack of cash with a small red toy car on top.
Auto Financeby StaffJanuary 20, 2026

AutoPayPlus Launches RePayPlus

The reinsured biweekly payment program offers auto dealers with customer retention and reinsurance structure.

Read More →
F&Iby Hannah MitchellJanuary 12, 2026

Auto Credit Access Loosens

December brought some of the best borrowing availability for consumers in years, though lenders tightened their reins on riskier segments of the market.

Read More →
A hand holding small burlap money bags next to a toy red car, symbolizing auto financing, loan payments, and dealership profitability.
Industryby StaffNovember 14, 2025

Report Uncovers $4.7B Opportunity for Auto Dealers

Solving mismatched payment quotes can boost sales, profits

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Industryby Hannah MitchellNovember 10, 2025

Auto Loans More in Reach

October easier to tap despite approval rates falling

Read More →
Industryby Hannah MitchellNovember 3, 2025

Q3 Auto Loans Reveal Stress

Data reflect growing finance activity on the extreme ends of credit risk scale

Read More →
Industryby Hannah MitchellOctober 15, 2025

Debt-Strapped Auto Consumers on the Rise

The amounts owed on under-water trade-ins reach new highs.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
F&Iby Hannah MitchellOctober 10, 2025

Helping the Credit-Crunched

Though many auto consumers are finding it challenging to trade, dealers can leverage conditions to help them get over the hump.

Read More →