SANTA MONICA, Calif. — This month's new-vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 1,064,400 units, an 8.4 percent increase from July 2009 and an 8.9 percent increase from June 2010, according to Edmunds.com.

Edmunds.com analysts predict that July's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) will be 11.8 million, up from 11.1 in June 2010.

“July sales numbers should be the highest we’ve seen since last August's 'Cash for Clunkers' frenzy,” reported Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Ray Zhou. “Retail demand for new cars this month has been the strongest of the year, even more than in March when Toyota launched an aggressive incentive campaign and other automakers followed suit.”

July 2010 had 27 selling days, one more than last July 2009. When adjusted for this difference, sales increased 4.4 percent from July 2009. (The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.)

“Consumers have been conditioned to think that the summer is a great time to pick up a deal on a new car,” asserted Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “The bargain-hunting mentality that reigns in the marketplace today – and automakers’ ads promoting the clearance of old inventory – are driving people to dealerships in search of deals which, frankly, aren’t all that generous this year.”

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 44.9 percent in July 2010, up from 44.3 percent in July 2009 and down from 46.8 percent in June 2010.

“When perception and reality are in conflict, perception typically rules,” commented Edmunds.com CEO Jeremy Anwyl. “We saw the same unwarranted reaction to last year’s automaker bankruptcies; people perceived that the circumstances would deliver a great deal on a new car, but a bit of pricing research would have proven that theory false and saved them some real money.”

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 91,400 units in July 2010, up 3.9 percent compared to July 2009 but down 0.9 percent from June 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 8.6 percent for Chrysler in July 2010, down from 9.0 percent in July 2009 and down from 9.4 percent as in June 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 180,400 units in July 2010, up 13.2 percent compared to July 2009 and up 5.7 percent from June 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 17.0 percent of new car sales in July 2010 for Ford, up from 16.2 percent in July 2009 but down from 17.5 percent in June 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 206,400 units in July 2010, up 9.9 percent compared to July 2009 and up 5.9 percent from June 2010. GM's market share is expected to be 19.4 percent of new vehicle sales in July 2010, up from 19.1 percent in July 2009 but down from 19.9 percent in June 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 118,900 units in July 2010, up 3.7 percent from July 2009 and up 11.5 percent from June 2010. Honda’s market share is expected to be 11.2 percent in July 2010, down from 11.7 percent in July 2009 but up from 10.9 percent in June 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 86,500 units in July 2010, up 21.8 percent from July 2009 and up 34.0 percent from June 2010. Nissan's market share is expected to be 8.1 percent in July 2010, up from 7.2 percent in July 2009 and up from 6.6 percent in June 2010.

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 166,100 units in July 2010, down 5.0 percent from July 2009 but up 18.1 percent from June 2010. Toyota's market share is expected to be 15.6 percent in July 2010, down from 17.8 percent in July 2009 but up from 14.4 percent in June 2010.