SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com said today that it expects new-vehicle sales to reach 1.17 million units in July, an 8.8 percent decrease from June but a 10.6 percent increase from July 2011.

The July 2012 forecast translates into a SAAR of 14.1 million new-car sales, up from 12.2 million in July 2011 and down from 14.1 million in June 2012. Retail sales are up 3 percent compared to July 2011 and down 8.9 percent from June 2012.

Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 21.0 percent of total industry sales in July 2012.

The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,480 in July 2012, which represents a decrease of 3.7 percent from July 2011 and a decrease of 2.7 percent from June 2012. Used-car sales are estimated to be 4.24 million, down 5.7 percent from July 2011 and down 3.3 percent from June 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1 to 4 for July 2012.

“The pace of new vehicle sales remained steady in July despite the mixed economic news, helped by the compelling selection of vehicles and highly optimized incentive programs,” said Jesse Toprak, vice president of market intelligence for TrueCar.com. “The Japanese Big 3, as well as Chrysler, will all be posting double-digit gains while Ford and GM will essentially be flat. One look at the Toyota and Honda sales today will make you think as if nothing ever happened last year.”

Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for July 2012:

Unit Sales

Market Share

Incentive Spending