New-Car Sales to Rise 12 Percent in October, TrueCar.com Predicts

Despite incentive spending falling to its lowest level since May 2011, TrueCar estimates October’s SAAR to come in at 14.9 million units, the second highest rate in 2012.

by Staff

October 30, 2012

2 min to read

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com, the vehicle information site, predicts that the industry will retail 1.137 million units in October, up 11.5 percent from October 2011 and down 4.2 percent from Sept. 2012 (on an unadjusted basis).

The October 2012 forecast translates into a SAAR of 14.9 million new-car sales, up from 13.3 million in October 2011 and down from 14.94 million in September 2012. TrueCar expects that retail sales will be up 8.6 percent compared to Oct. 2011 and down 3.9 percent from Sept. 2012.

Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 18.1 percent of total industry sales in October 2012, the company added.

The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,353, down 5.6 percent from October 2011 and down 2.9 percent from September 2012

Used-car sales are estimated to be 3.22 million, up 10.8 percent from Oct. 2011 and down 8.3 percent from September 2012. The ratio of new-to-used sales is estimated to be 1-to-3 for October.

“New car sales are on automatic pilot. October was a robust start to quarter four sales, with most manufacturers posting double-digit gains while continuing to lower incentives spending,” said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst at TrueCar.com. “We expect this recovery momentum to continue into the next year, with 2013 sales reaching 15.5 million units.”

Unit Sales

Manufacturer	October 2012 Forecast	% Change vs. September 2012	% Change vs. October 2011
Chrysler	131,496	-7.4%	14.8%
Ford	176,408	1.1%	5.3%
GM	200,517	-4.6%	7.3%
Honda	112,020	-4.4%	13.9%
Hyundai/Kia	102,445	-5.3%	13.7%
Nissan	86,114	-6.3%	4.6%
Toyota	163,492	-4.9%	22.0%
Volkswagen	47,857	-1.6%	25.1%
Industry	1,137,744	-4.2%	11.5%

Market Share

Manufacturer	October 2012 Forecast	September 2012	October 2011
Chrysler	11.6%	12.0%	11.2%
Ford	15.5%	14.7%	16.4%
GM	17.6%	17.7%	18.3%
Honda	9.8%	9.9%	9.6%
Hyundai/Kia	9.0%	9.1%	8.8%
Nissan	7.6%	7.7%	8.1%
Toyota	14.4%	14.5%	13.1%
Volkswagen	4.2%	4.1%	3.7%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer	October 2012 Incentives	% Change vs. September 2012	% Change vs. October 2011	Total Spending
Chrysler	$3,237	-0.3%	4.1%	$425,613,537
Ford	$2,463	-2.7%	-13.7%	$434,463,072
GM	$2,856	-2.0%	-8.3%	$572,690,590
Honda	$2,141	-13.2%	-3.0%	$239,878,416
Hyundai/Kia	$1,323	-2.5%	16.0%	$135,522,118
Nissan	$2,402	-4.4%	-11.0%	$206,875,784
Toyota	$1,848	-2.3%	5.3%	$302,103,929
Volkswagen	$2,399	0.6%	6.9%	$114,791,409
Industry	$2,353	-2.9%	-5.6%	$2,676,639,761