New-Car Sales to Rise 12 Percent in October, TrueCar.com Predicts
Despite incentive spending falling to its lowest level since May 2011, TrueCar estimates October’s SAAR to come in at 14.9 million units, the second highest rate in 2012.
SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com, the vehicle information site, predicts that the industry will retail 1.137 million units in October, up 11.5 percent from October 2011 and down 4.2 percent from Sept. 2012 (on an unadjusted basis).
The October 2012 forecast translates into a SAAR of 14.9 million new-car sales, up from 13.3 million in October 2011 and down from 14.94 million in September 2012. TrueCar expects that retail sales will be up 8.6 percent compared to Oct. 2011 and down 3.9 percent from Sept. 2012.
Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 18.1 percent of total industry sales in October 2012, the company added.
The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,353, down 5.6 percent from October 2011 and down 2.9 percent from September 2012
Used-car sales are estimated to be 3.22 million, up 10.8 percent from Oct. 2011 and down 8.3 percent from September 2012. The ratio of new-to-used sales is estimated to be 1-to-3 for October.
“New car sales are on automatic pilot. October was a robust start to quarter four sales, with most manufacturers posting double-digit gains while continuing to lower incentives spending,” said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst at TrueCar.com. “We expect this recovery momentum to continue into the next year, with 2013 sales reaching 15.5 million units.”
Unit Sales
Manufacturer | October 2012 Forecast | % Change vs. September 2012 | % Change vs. October 2011 |
Chrysler | 131,496 | -7.4% | 14.8% |
Ford | 176,408 | 1.1% | 5.3% |
GM | 200,517 | -4.6% | 7.3% |
Honda | 112,020 | -4.4% | 13.9% |
Hyundai/Kia | 102,445 | -5.3% | 13.7% |
Nissan | 86,114 | -6.3% | 4.6% |
Toyota | 163,492 | -4.9% | 22.0% |
Volkswagen | 47,857 | -1.6% | 25.1% |
Industry | 1,137,744 | -4.2% | 11.5% |
Market Share
Manufacturer | October 2012 Forecast | September 2012 | October 2011 |
Chrysler | 11.6% | 12.0% | 11.2% |
Ford | 15.5% | 14.7% | 16.4% |
GM | 17.6% | 17.7% | 18.3% |
Honda | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.6% |
Hyundai/Kia | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.8% |
Nissan | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% |
Toyota | 14.4% | 14.5% | 13.1% |
Volkswagen | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% |
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer | October 2012 Incentives | % Change vs. September 2012 | % Change vs. October 2011 | Total Spending |
Chrysler | $3,237 | -0.3% | 4.1% | $425,613,537 |
Ford | $2,463 | -2.7% | -13.7% | $434,463,072 |
GM | $2,856 | -2.0% | -8.3% | $572,690,590 |
Honda | $2,141 | -13.2% | -3.0% | $239,878,416 |
Hyundai/Kia | $1,323 | -2.5% | 16.0% | $135,522,118 |
Nissan | $2,402 | -4.4% | -11.0% | $206,875,784 |
Toyota | $1,848 | -2.3% | 5.3% | $302,103,929 |
Volkswagen | $2,399 | 0.6% | 6.9% | $114,791,409 |
Industry | $2,353 | -2.9% | -5.6% | $2,676,639,761 |
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