TrueCar: January New-Car Sales to Rise 15 Percent
TrueCar predicts January’s SAAR will reach 15.4 million, the highest reading since 2008. It also predicts that incentive spending will drop to its lowest level since October 2005.
SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com predicted this week that January new light vehicle sales will reach 1.05 million units retailed, up 15.1 percent from January 2012 and down 22.5 percent from December 2012 on an unadjusted basis.
The January 2013 forecast translates into a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 15.4 million new-car sales, up from 14 million in January 2012 but flat from December 2012’s total of 15.4 units.
Retail sales are up 14.2 percent compared to January 2012 but down 19.8 percent from December 2012, while fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 16.5 percent of total industry sales in January 2013.
Average incentive spending per unit for the month is expected to be approximately $2,274, which represents a decrease of 8.3 percent from January 2012 and a decrease of 12.2 percent from December 2012. Used-car sales are estimated to top 2.3 million, up 5 percent from January 2012 and down 26.6 percent from December 2012. The industry is expected also is expected to deliver one new vehicle for every two used vehicles sold.
“January is off to an amazing start and this momentum will carry forward through the rest of the year with auto sales expected to reach 15.5 million units,” said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for TrueCar.com.
Unit Sales
Manufacturer | January 2013 Forecast | % Change vs. December 2012 | % Change vs. January 2012 |
Chrysler | 120,270 | -21.6% | 18.3% |
Ford | 161,460 | -24.2% | 18.5% |
GM | 190,702 | -22.4% | 13.5% |
Honda | 100,525 | -24.3% | 21.1% |
Hyundai/Kia | 83,994 | -14.8% | 7.4% |
Nissan | 81,187 | -18.2% | 2.4% |
Toyota | 149,123 | -23.2% | 19.7% |
Volkswagen | 46,245 | -21.4% | 26.5% |
Industry | 1,050,938 | -22.5% | 15.1% |
Market Share
Manufacturer | January 2013 Forecast | December 2012 | January 2012 |
Chrysler | 11.4% | 11.3% | 11.1% |
Ford | 15.4% | 15.7% | 14.9% |
GM | 18.1% | 18.1% | 18.4% |
Honda | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% |
Hyundai/Kia | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.6% |
Nissan | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.7% |
Toyota | 14.2% | 14.3% | 13.6% |
Volkswagen | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% |
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer | January 2013 Incentives | % Change vs. December 2012 | % Change vs. January 2012 | Total Spending |
Chrysler | $2,973 | -4.2% | -5.9% | $355,614,123 |
Ford | $2,643 | -5.3% | -8.4% | $426,718,158 |
GM | $3,150 | -10.6% | 2.6% | $600,720,874 |
Honda | $1,194 | -27.9% | -43.9% | $120,028,683 |
Hyundai/Kia | $1,243 | -15.8% | 3.7% | $104,399,224 |
Nissan | $2,084 | -20.7% | -24.6% | $169,170,333 |
Toyota | $1,660 | -14.0% | -3.3% | $247,613,224 |
Volkswagen | $2,276 | -4.6% | 4.8% | $105,246,717 |
Industry | $2,274 | -12.2% | -8.3% | $2,390,101,280 |
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