This past weekend I went to opening day for my nephew’s
Little League baseball team. This was his second year, and let me tell you, I
hadn’t seen a crowd like that since my playing days at that park back in the
‘80s.
Granted, the bases-clearing double my nephew hit might
be playing into my sentiment here, but I really think this recession is going to
remind us of the little things that made life fun. I mean, for about 45 minutes
(games are shorter on opening day) all I could see were parents cheering on
their kids or selling snacks to help raise money for the league.
In our rush to have everything, we’ve forgotten about
the little things in life. Unfortunately, this recession is providing a nice
reminder of those little things.
Don’t get me wrong, I was jumping out of my chair when I
heard about today’s rally on Wall Street, especially since it was led by
companies impacting our industry -- Citigroup, which saw
its shares jump 38 percent, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and JPMorgan Chase.
However, as several market analysts said, one day doesn’t make for a
trend.
I often think back to Amy Martin’s comment at the AFSA
(American Financial Services Association)’s 2008 Vehicle Finance Conference in San Francisco.
The director of structured finance ratings for Standard & Poor’s Corporation
said: “I think [the correction is] going to be felt across the board … the
consumer is going to feel it, the dealer and the finance company. That’s what
happens when you go through a correction …”
I’m not sure Martin knew how bad things would get when
she made those comments more than a year ago. Her point, however, was that we’re
kidding ourselves if we think we’re going to get through this period pain-free.
The truth is – and it’s something I think we’ve forgotten – we’re all in this
together.
It’d be nice if some revered economist or financial
expert could tell us that things are going to be OK. Unfortunately, even those
people don’t know what to make of things.
Yesterday, Warren Buffett likened the crisis to our
economy falling off of a cliff, saying during his appearance on CNBC that
President Obama is in essence a wartime president given the severity of the
economic downturn.
“We’re in a big war, and we’re going to use money to
fight it,” he said.
Then there was the comment from Nigel Gault in response
to the jobless rate hitting 8.1 percent in February, the highest since 1983.
“There is no light at the end of the tunnel with these numbers,” said the
economist for IHS Global Insight.
As bad as that sounds, I do
believe consumers are just waiting for someone to
tell them it’s OK to spend again, which is actually being supported
by recent data. True, the unemployment rate was
definitely a shot to the stomach, but there was also a consumer spending report
that offered some good news.
Retail sales in January rose 1 percent, while consumer
spending and income rose 0.6 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. I know
that’s not a lot, but as one economist said, spending will be a key indicator of
our return to normalcy. Heck, consumers went out and spent after the 2001 terrorist attacks and
the 1987 stock market crash,
as people
could only keep their pent-up demand bottled up for so
long.
“I think we are close to where the intensity of the
recession starts to back off,” said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the
Conference Board, who believes March payroll losses to be below 600,000, the
first time in about four months.
And apparently many of you in our industry believe the
same thing, at least according to results from a survey conducted by the Small
Business Research Board (SBRB) in the fourth quarter of 2008. The results said
40 percent of owners and managers of automotive-related businesses expected the
general economy to improve over the next 12 months, which was a 12-point
increase over the second quarter of 2008.
Think about those results for a second. Even during what
was one of the worst quarters in our industry’s history, dealers still could see
the light at the end of the tunnel.
Look, I don’t claim to know what’s going to happen. All
I know is I felt pretty good about things at my nephew’s game. Not once did I
think about the repairs my car needs, the property taxes I owe this year or the
credit card I still need to pay off.
However, when those thoughts do start to overwhelm me, I
think back to a quote I picked up from John William Snow, chairman of Cerberus
Capital Management LP, during the 2008 Vehicle Finance Conference. “Don’t panic,
we’ve been through credit cycles like this before. If we build strong habits,
adapt best practices, we should be able to build a good foundation for the
future.”