June and second-quarter new-vehicle sales forecast show business was brisk and easily exceeded volume a year earlier, according to joint tallies by J.D. Power and GlobalData

Retail and nonretail sales combined will total nearly 1.4 million units in June, up 23% year-over-year, and 4.1 million for the quarter, up 18%, according to the forecast.

June’s seasonally adjusted annual rate is 15.8 million, well above 12.9 million a year earlier.

The projection for the first half of the year is 7.7 million, up about 14% year-over-year.

Retail sales alone are expected to reach 1.1 million in June, up about 17% year-over-year, and 3.3 million in the quarter, up 11%. Half-year retail deliveries will hit 6.2 million, up 6%.

“The 2023 theme of strong sales growth, enabled by increased vehicle production and pent-up demand, is continuing in June,” said J.D. Power Data and Analytics Division President Thomas King in a press release.

The strong June sales are still below prepandemic numbers, which exceeded eight million, King said.

Prices remain high and are even rising, he said, and that’s combined with much higher interest rates.

“Volume growth is being complemented by further increases in transaction prices which are trending towards being up 3% for the first half of 2023 despite increases in OEM incentives and declines in dealer grosses. As a result, it’s anticipated that consumers will spend nearly $281.4 billion on the purchase of new vehicles in the first half of 2023, a noteworthy 8% growth from the same period a year ago.”

Still, improving inventories will serve to balance the playing field, softening record prices, even as pent-up demand keeps sales strong, King said.

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