IRVINE, Calif. — New-vehicle sales are expected to decline 1.8 percent in September to a total of 1.17 million units, according to Kelley Blue Book, provider of new- and used-car information.

“September 2013 new-vehicle sales represent the first year-over-year drop since May 2011, due to slower retail sales, two fewer sales days in the month, and this year’s Labor Day sales included in August 2013 totals,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book. “Despite the cool down this month, Kelley Blue Book forecasts sales will remain on track to exceed 15.6 million units in 2013 because of strong product introductions from automakers.” 

This month, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1.167 million units, down 1.8 percent from September 2012 and down 22.2 percent from August 2013. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for September is estimated to be 15.7 million, up from 14.7 million in September 2012 and down from 16 million last month. Retail sales are expected to account for 85 percent in September.

Honda will continue its momentum from a strong August last month, when it posted a 27 percent gain year over year. While calendar quirks this month will limit Honda to single-digit growth, two of its three core products, the Civic and CR-V, are leading their respective segments this year. Toyota also is expected to post small gains in September with its all-new Corolla, which will challenge the Civic for the best-selling small car this year. Domestic manufacturers are expected to post volume losses for the month; however, their combined market share of 44.4 percent will be slightly higher than last month and one year ago.

Compact crossovers will see the biggest growth of any segment, as sales are up 21.7 percent so far this year, fueled by redesigns of the Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV4 and Subaru Forester. While housing prices are starting to level out, housing construction and sales remain up, helping pickup truck sales accelerate into the fall season when sales are typically strong.

“In September 2013, Kelley Blue Book expects compact cars to surpass mid-size cars as the leading segment for the first time since June 2011,” said Tim Fleming, analyst at Kelley Blue Book. “Over the past three months, compact car sales have soared 17.8 percent on the strength of the Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cruze and Hyundai Elantra, and the introduction of the new Toyota Corolla will bolster sales even more in this segment.”