SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Edmunds.com forecasts that about 1.26 million new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in September for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.5 million. The projected sales represented a 20.3% decrease from August 2014, but an 11% increase from September 2013.

“September sales are consistent with the strength we’ve seen most of this year,” said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “But the topline sales aren’t as interesting as the ways in which shoppers have driven those sales. Buyers have been able to secure low financing deals and have responded to lease offers in record numbers. These are behaviors that bode well for the continued strength of new-car sales.”

Edmunds.com estimates the retail SAAR will come in at 13.8 million unit in September, with fleet transactions accounting for 16.2% of total sales. An estimated 2.95 million used cars will be sold in September for a SAAR of 36.3 million (compared to 2.98 million used-car sales in August, for a SAAR of 36.2 million).

Sales Volume Forecast, By Manufacturer

Sales Volume Sept. 2014 Forecast Sept. 2013 Aug. 2014 Change from Sept. 2013 Change from Aug. 2014 GM 228,801 187,195 272,423 22.2% -16.0% Ford 177,310 184,452 221,273 -3.9% -19.9% Toyota 175,776 164,457 246,100 6.9% -28.6% Chrysler 165,004 143,017 198,379 15.4% -16.8% Honda 128,895 105,563 167,038 22.1% -22.8% Nissan 101,260 86,868 134,388 16.6% -24.7% Hyundai/Kia 99,919 93,105 124,670 7.3% -19.9% VW/Audi 45,332 44,985 52,282 0.8% -13.3% Industry 1,261,380 1,136,214 1,582,600 11.0% -20.3%