Used-vehicle sales got a year-over-year boost in February, possibly buoyed by continued high new-model prices coupled with recently lower used-vehicle prices, Cox Automotive says.

Estimated sales for the month neared 3.2 million, up 3% year-over-year. The seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, was an estimated 35.5 million, also up from a year earlier, when it was 34.5 million, though it dropped from January’s upwardly revised 37.5 million.

Market churn at different levels, though, could reverse the trend, Cox says.

“So far in March, data suggest that demand is losing momentum, with average tax refunds lower than last year, used retail prices increasing and interest rates continuing to rise,” said senior Cox economist Charles Chesbrough. “Meanwhile, used-vehicle supply remains very tight, so used prices will likely climb more, which could further impact demand.”

Breaking the numbers down to retail used-vehicle sales, or those at dealerships, excluding private-party transactions, were an estimated 1.7 million, up 3.5% year-over-year, Cox said. The SAAR in that category, though, fell from 19.9 million in January to 18.8 million.

Cox forecasts used-vehicle sales to drop 1% this year from 2022 volume.

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