Edmunds.com Forecasts October Auto Sales, Predicts 10.35 Million SAAR
This month's new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 830,000 units, a 0.6 percent decrease from October 2008 but an 11.4 percent increase from September 2009, according to Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information.
SANTA MONICA, Calif. — This month's new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 830,000 units, a 0.6 percent decrease from October 2008 but an 11.4 percent increase from September 2009, according to Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information.
Edmunds.com analysts predict that October's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 10.35 million, up from 9.19 in September.
"This month’s SAAR will be the year’s highest, discounting the months when the Cash for Clunkers program helped spur sales," observed Jessica Caldwell, director of industry analysis for Edmunds.com. "There are clear signs that the automotive industry is finally starting to recover from the painful lows experienced earlier this year."
October 2009 had 28 selling days, one more than last October 2008. When adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 4.1 percent as compared to October 2008. (The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.)
Change from October 2008(Adjusted for more selling days) | Change from October 2008(Unadjusted for more selling days) | Change from September 2009 (Unadjusted for more selling days) | |
Chrysler | -33.8% | -31.4% | 4.3% |
Ford | -6.9% | -3.5% | 12.6% |
GM | 2.0% | 5.7% | 14.8% |
Honda | -0.8% | 2.9% | 14.4% |
Hyundai | 33.4% | 38.3% | -5.5% |
Nissan | 8.6% | 12.7% | 15.8% |
Toyota | -9.6% | -6.2% | 13.2% |
Industry Total | -4.1% | -0.6% | 11.4% |
The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 44.7 percent in October 2009, down from 47.4 percent in October 2008 but up from 44.5 percent in September 2009.
"We anticipate that in October General Motors will achieve its highest market share year-to-date. The company has some momentum at the moment, and its investment in incentives and marketing seems to be paying off," Senior Analyst Michelle Krebs noted in her report on Edmunds' AutoObserver.com. "Ford’s market share is hovering in the same range it has for the past year, while Chrysler has lost 3.5 points of market share in the past year.”
Forecast Market Share October 2009 | Actual Market Share October 2008 | Actual Market Share September 2009 | |
Chrysler | 7.8% | 11.3% | 8.3% |
Ford | 15.4% | 15.8% | 15.2% |
GM | 21.5% | 20.3% | 20.9% |
Honda | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.4% |
Hyundai | 6.2% | 4.4% | 7.1% |
Nissan | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% |
Toyota | 17.2% | 18.2% | 16.9% |
Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 65,000 units in October 2009, down 31.4 percent compared to October 2008 but up 4.3 percent from September 2009. This would result in a new car market share of 7.8 percent for Chrysler in October 2009, down from 11.3 percent in October 2008 and down from 8.3 percent as in September 2009.
Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 128,000 units in October 2009, down 3.5 percent compared to October 2008 but up 12.6 percent from September 2009. This would result in a new car market share of 15.4 percent of new car sales in October 2009 for Ford, down from 15.8 percent in October 2008 but up from 15.2 percent in September 2009.
Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 179,000 units in October 2009, up 5.7 percent compared to October 2008 and up 14.8 percent from September 2009. GM's market share is expected to be 21.5 percent of new vehicle sales in October 2009, up from 20.3 percent in October 2008 and up from 20.9 percent in September 2009.
Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 88,000 units in October 2009, up 2.9 percent from October 2008 and up 14.4 percent from September 2009. Honda’s market share is expected to be 10.7 percent in October 2009, up from 10.3 percent in October 2008 and up from 10.4 percent in September 2009.
Edmunds.com predicts Hyundai will sell 50,000 units in October 2009, up 38.3 percent from October 2008 but down 5.5 percent from September 2009. Hyundai’s market share is expected to be 6.1 percent in October 2009, up from 4.4 percent in October 2008 but down from 7.1 percent in September 2009.
Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 64,000 units in October 2009, up 12.7 percent from October 2008 and up 15.8 percent from September 2009. Nissan's market share is expected to be 7.7 percent in October 2009, up from 6.8 percent in October 2008 and up from 7.4 percent in September 2009.
Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 143,000 units in October 2009, down 6.2 percent from October 2008 but up 13.2 percent from September 2009. Toyota's market share is expected to be 17.2 percent in October 2009, down from 18.2 percent in October 2008 but up from 16.9 percent in September.
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