SANTA MONICA, Calif. — This month's new-car sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be approximately 937,000 units, a 20.1 percent increase from February 2010 and a 14.4 percent increase from January 2011, according to Edmunds.com.

Retail sales are expected to be approximately 743,000 units, up from approximately 662,000 last month, a 12 percent bump that’s in line with the expected seasonal increase.

Edmunds.com analysts predict that February's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) will be 12.64 million, up from 12.54 in January 2011. SAAR for retail sales remained flat from last month at about 10.1 million.

Average automaker incentives in the U.S. are estimated to be $2,530 per vehicle sold in February 2011, down $31, or 1.2 percent, from January 2011, and down $127, or 4.8 percent, from February 2010.

“February started slow, but it gained plenty of momentum over President’s Day weekend,” commented Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. ”It was also the fifth consecutive month with a SAAR over 12 million, which is a good sign as the industry presses forward into March.”

February 2011 had 24 selling days, the same as February 2010. The chart below sets forth month-over-month comparisons:

“General Motors continues to have the highest market share, but it also leads the other Big 6 automakers in incentive spending by a healthy margin,” added Caldwell. “Toyota’s market share, on the other hand, has fallen to its lowest level since its issues with unintended acceleration reached its peak this time last year. It can’t start rolling out their new products fast enough.”

Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 128,800 units in February 2011, up 28.8 percent from February 2010 and up 11.2 percent from January 2011. Toyota's market share is expected to be 13.7 percent in February 2011, up from 12.8 percent in February 2010 but down from 14.1 percent in January 2011.

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 46.2 percent in February 2011, down from 47.2 percent in February 2010 but up from 45.9 percent in January 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 87,600 units in February 2011, up 3.7 percent compared to February 2010 and up 24.9 percent from January 2011. This would result in a new car market share of 9.3 percent for Chrysler in February 2011, down from 10.8 percent in February 2010 but up from 8.6 percent as in January 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 151,900 units in February 2011, up 7.0 percent compared to February 2010 and up 19.7 percent from January 2011. This would result in a new car market share of 16.2 percent of new car sales in February 2011 for Ford, down from 18.2 percent in February 2010 but up from 15.5 percent in January 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 193,500 units in February 2011, up 36.7 percent compared to February 2010 and up 8.4 percent from January 2011. GM's market share is expected to be 20.7 percent of new vehicle sales in February 2011, up from 18.1 percent in February 2010 but down from 21.8 percent in January 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 93,800 units in February 2011, up 16.3 percent from February 2010 and up 23.0 percent from January 2011. Honda’s market share is expected to be 10.0 percent in February 2011, down from 10.3 percent in February 2010 but up from 9.3 percent in January 2011.

Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 88,900 units in February 2011, up 26.6 percent from February 2010 and up 23.7 percent from January 2011. Nissan's market share is expected to be 9.5 percent in February 2011, up from 9.0 percent in February 2010 and up from 8.8 percent in January 2011.