June New-Car Sales Strong Despite Forecasted Decline, Says Edmunds

Edmunds.com forecasts that about 1.36 million new vehicle will be sold in June, a 15.4% decline from May and a 3.1% decline from June 2013. Analysts, however, say the declines don’t mean June will be a bad month for car sales.

by Staff

June 26, 2014

2 min to read

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Edmunds.com forecasts that 1,358,683 new cars and trucks will be sold in the June, a 15.4% decrease from May and a 3.1% decrease from June 2013. The firm put the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.3 million units.

“The industry will see lots of year-over-year and month-over-month declines, but that doesn’t mean that June was a bad month for sales,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “It's important to remember that there were fewer sales days in June 2014 than in June last year or in May 2014. In fact, shoppers this month bought 2,700 more cars per day than they bought in June 2013. So the momentum is still very much alive.”

Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.1 million vehicles in June, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.4% of total sales. An estimated 2.94 million used cars will be sold in June, for a SAAR of 36.8 million. In May, the industry sold 3.05 million used cars, for a SAAR of 36.4 million units.

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume	Jun-14 Forecast	Jun-13	May-14	Change from Jun 2013*	Change from May 2014*
GM	242,200	264,843	284,694	-8.5%	-14.9%
Ford	219,601	234,917	253,346	-6.5%	-13.3%
Toyota	197,808	195,235	243,236	1.3%	-18.7%
Chrysler Group	166,483	156,686	194,421	6.3%	-14.4%
Honda	126,816	136,915	152,603	-7.4%	-16.9%
Hyundai/Kia	112,131	115,543	130,994	-3.0%	-14.4%
Nissan	109,375	104,124	135,934	5.0%	-19.5%
VW/Audi	42,674	50,663	48,764	-15.8%	-12.5%
Industry	1,358,683	1,402,274	1,605,550	-3.1%	-15.4%

*NOTE: June 2014 had 24 selling days, June 2013 had 26 and May 2014 had 27.

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market Share	Jun-14 Forecast	Jun-13	May-14	Change from June 2013 (Percentage pts.)	Change from May 2014 (Percentage pts.)
GM	17.8%	18.9%	17.7%	-1.1%	0.1%
Ford	16.2%	16.8%	15.8%	-0.6%	0.4%
Toyota	14.6%	13.9%	15.1%	0.6%	-0.6%
Chrysler Group	12.3%	11.2%	12.1%	1.1%	0.1%
Honda	9.3%	9.8%	9.5%	-0.4%	-0.2%
Hyundai/Kia	8.3%	8.2%	8.2%	0.0%	0.1%
Nissan	8.1%	7.4%	8.5%	0.6%	-0.4%
VW/Audi	3.1%	3.6%	3.0%	-0.5%	0.1%