KBB: New-Car Sales Expected to Achieve Greatest YTD Gain in June

If Kelley Blue Book’s prediction holds true, the automotive retail industry will realize its greatest year-to-date gain and its highest SAAR reading since Nov. 2012.

by Staff

June 27, 2013

3 min to read

IRVINE, Calif. — New-car sales are expected to improve 6 percent year-over-year in June to a total of 1.363 million units, according to Kelley Blue Book. That would represent a 10.1 percent year-over-year gain after adjusting for one fewer selling day this month.

If the prediction is realized, the industry will realize its strongest year-over-year gain thus far in 2013. The industry will also realize a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.5 million, the highest SAAR reading since November 2012 and the highest June SAAR since 2007 at 15.8 million.

“We’ve had a strong first half of the year with new-car sales up nearly 7 percent compared to the first half of last year,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst of automotive insights for Kelley Blue Book. “The industry continues to benefit from modest improvements in housing, unemployment and consumer confidence.”

Nissan Paces Industry Gains, While Ford Leads Domestic Automakers

	Sales Volume 1			Market Share 2
Manufacturer	Jun-13	Jun-12	YOY %	Jun-13	Jun-12	YOY %
General Motors	252,000	248,750	1.3%	18.5%	19.4%	-0.9%
Ford Motor Company	235,000	207,204	13.4%	17.2%	16.1%	1.1%
Toyota Motor Company	184,000	177,795	3.5%	13.5%	13.8%	-0.3%
Chrysler Group	156,000	144,811	7.7%	11.4%	11.3%	0.2%
American Honda	133,000	124,808	6.6%	9.8%	9.7%	0.0%
Nissan North America	106,000	92,237	14.9%	7.8%	7.2%	0.6%
Hyundai-Kia	111,000	115,139	-3.6%	8.1%	9.0%	-0.8%
Volkswagen	54,000	53,836	0.3%	4.0%	4.2%	-0.2%
Total 3	1,363,000	1,285,499	6.0%	-	-	-
1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements
2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
3 Includes brands not shown

As it did in May, Nissan will lead sales gains again this month. The Japanese automaker is expected to post a 14.9 percent increase, bouyed by demand for the newly redesigned Altima and Sentra. More consumers may be drawn to Nissan products since Nissan cut the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) on seven of its models in May.

Ford will rely on a strong pickup truck market and plentiful incentives on its F-150 to drive a 13.4 percent gain. Meanwhile, Hyundai-Kia is expected to decline 3.6 percent, as it faces production capacity constraints and competition from newer product offerings from other manufacturers, especially in the mid-size car segment.

Mid-Size Race Heating Up, Trucks and CUVs Continue Surge

	Sales Volume 1			Market Share
Segment	Dec-89	Jan-81	YOY %	Jan-00	Jan-00	YOY %
Mid-Size Car	231,000	229,677	0.6%	427.8%	435.2%	-7.4%
Compact Car	192,000	182,359	5.3%	355.6%	345.6%	10.0%
Compact Crossover	177,000	150,007	18.0%	327.8%	284.3%	43.5%
Full-Size Pickup Truck	164,000	137,907	18.9%	303.7%	261.3%	42.4%
Subcompact Car	54,000	52,772	2.3%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%
Total 2	1,363,000	1,285,499	6.0%	-	-	-
1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
2 Includes segments not shown

Honda’s all-new Accord appears well-positioned to challenge the Toyota Camry for the top spot in mid-size segment sales this month, while the Ford Fusion and Nissan Altima are not far behind.

Demand remains strong for large pickups and compact utility vehicles, both of which are expected to be up nearly 20 percent.

“Compact crossovers will capture more market share than ever before at 13 percent, fueled by recent redesigns of the Ford Escape, Honda CR-V and Toyota RAV4,” said Gutierrez. “Sales in the mid-size segment are expected to be relatively flat year over year; however, the fight for segment supremacy remains fierce.”

Topics:Kelley Blue Book June sales SAAR KBB.com KBB F&I