KBB: New-Car Sales Expected to Achieve Greatest YTD Gain in June
If Kelley Blue Book’s prediction holds true, the automotive retail industry will realize its greatest year-to-date gain and its highest SAAR reading since Nov. 2012.
IRVINE, Calif. — New-car sales are expected to improve 6 percent year-over-year in June to a total of 1.363 million units, according to Kelley Blue Book. That would represent a 10.1 percent year-over-year gain after adjusting for one fewer selling day this month.
If the prediction is realized, the industry will realize its strongest year-over-year gain thus far in 2013. The industry will also realize a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.5 million, the highest SAAR reading since November 2012 and the highest June SAAR since 2007 at 15.8 million.
“We’ve had a strong first half of the year with new-car sales up nearly 7 percent compared to the first half of last year,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst of automotive insights for Kelley Blue Book. “The industry continues to benefit from modest improvements in housing, unemployment and consumer confidence.”
Nissan Paces Industry Gains, While Ford Leads Domestic Automakers
Sales Volume 1 | Market Share 2 | |||||
Manufacturer | Jun-13 | Jun-12 | YOY % | Jun-13 | Jun-12 | YOY % |
General Motors | 252,000 | 248,750 | 1.3% | 18.5% | 19.4% | -0.9% |
Ford Motor Company | 235,000 | 207,204 | 13.4% | 17.2% | 16.1% | 1.1% |
Toyota Motor Company | 184,000 | 177,795 | 3.5% | 13.5% | 13.8% | -0.3% |
Chrysler Group | 156,000 | 144,811 | 7.7% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 0.2% |
American Honda | 133,000 | 124,808 | 6.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 0.0% |
Nissan North America | 106,000 | 92,237 | 14.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 0.6% |
Hyundai-Kia | 111,000 | 115,139 | -3.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | -0.8% |
Volkswagen | 54,000 | 53,836 | 0.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | -0.2% |
Total 3 | 1,363,000 | 1,285,499 | 6.0% | - | - | - |
1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements | ||||||
2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights | ||||||
3 Includes brands not shown | ||||||
As it did in May, Nissan will lead sales gains again this month. The Japanese automaker is expected to post a 14.9 percent increase, bouyed by demand for the newly redesigned Altima and Sentra. More consumers may be drawn to Nissan products since Nissan cut the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) on seven of its models in May.
Ford will rely on a strong pickup truck market and plentiful incentives on its F-150 to drive a 13.4 percent gain. Meanwhile, Hyundai-Kia is expected to decline 3.6 percent, as it faces production capacity constraints and competition from newer product offerings from other manufacturers, especially in the mid-size car segment.
Mid-Size Race Heating Up, Trucks and CUVs Continue Surge
Sales Volume 1 | Market Share | |||||
Segment | Dec-89 | Jan-81 | YOY % | Jan-00 | Jan-00 | YOY % |
Mid-Size Car | 231,000 | 229,677 | 0.6% | 427.8% | 435.2% | -7.4% |
Compact Car | 192,000 | 182,359 | 5.3% | 355.6% | 345.6% | 10.0% |
Compact Crossover | 177,000 | 150,007 | 18.0% | 327.8% | 284.3% | 43.5% |
Full-Size Pickup Truck | 164,000 | 137,907 | 18.9% | 303.7% | 261.3% | 42.4% |
Subcompact Car | 54,000 | 52,772 | 2.3% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Total 2 | 1,363,000 | 1,285,499 | 6.0% | - | - | - |
1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights | ||||||
2 Includes segments not shown | ||||||
Honda’s all-new Accord appears well-positioned to challenge the Toyota Camry for the top spot in mid-size segment sales this month, while the Ford Fusion and Nissan Altima are not far behind.
Demand remains strong for large pickups and compact utility vehicles, both of which are expected to be up nearly 20 percent.
“Compact crossovers will capture more market share than ever before at 13 percent, fueled by recent redesigns of the Ford Escape, Honda CR-V and Toyota RAV4,” said Gutierrez. “Sales in the mid-size segment are expected to be relatively flat year over year; however, the fight for segment supremacy remains fierce.”
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