New-Vehicle Sales Fall From Spike
Forecast shows tariff rush fading, but price effects anticipated later this year.

Even with price normalization, consumers are set to spend about $54 billion on new vehicles this month, up 7% year-over-year and a record for May.
Pexels/Skylar Kang
The tariff sales rush appears to have slowed this month as federal trade policy waxes and wanes and significant price pops have yet to emerge.
J.D. Power’s May U.S. new-vehicle sales forecast projects retail deliveries to grow 1% year-over-year to 1.2 million units as adjusted for one extra selling day than last May.
As the spring bounce wanes from the highs brought by consumers getting ahead of any tariff-pumped prices, the average May transaction price will climb by a projected $649 year-over-year to $45,462, or 91% of manufacturer’s suggested retail price, J.D. Power forecast. That ATP is down 1% month-over-month.
Dealer profits appear to also be normalizing, J.D. Power said. Retailer profit per unit is forecast to fall $29 month-over-month to $2,502. That’s up $98 year-over-year, or aggregate retailer profit of $3 billion, a 10% bump.
Even with the price normalization, consumers are set to spend about $54 billion on new vehicles this month, up 7% year-over-year and a record for May, said J.D. Power. It predicted the average monthly loan payment will grow 3% to $748, also a record for May, despite a flat average interest rate.
The balance of the year is expected to get complicated. J.D. Power forecast tariff-induced inflation to automakers’ cost to make the average vehicle at $4,275, though it pointed out the effects will vary among brands and even within a single brand’s lineup.
“Some pricing actions are anticipated to occur in June and July, but it is likely that it will be year-end before go-forward pricing fully materializes,” said Thomas King, president of the company’s data and analytics division.
More Showroom

Affordable, Safe Cars for Teen Drivers
Families looking to balance affordability and safety in vehicles for their teen drivers can look to the updated list of recommended vehicles by IIHS and Consumer Reports.
Read More →
Auto Dealers Feel Better But Not Great
A second-quarter Cox Automotive poll of franchised retailers and independents found better views of the current market after a good spring but anticipation of third-quarter storminess.
Read More →
Holman Opens Porsche Dealership in Miami
The North Miami store features the brand’s signature Destination Porsche design concept, combining contemporary architecture and technology to create what the auto group calls an ultra-luxury experience.
Read More →
Chicago to Gain Cadillac Rooftop in 2027
The two-story Cadillac dealership is being constructed at the former Lincoln Yards site, owned and operated by Canada-based Jack Carter Auto Group.
Read More →
Mid-Atlantic Ford Store Has New Owner
A growing Maryland automotive group is only the 93-year-old dealership’s third owner after its longtime proprietors retired.
Read More →
Porsche Dealership Breaks Ground in Illinois
Barrington Porsche will be the new location for Murgado Automotive Group’s existing Porsche dealership currently in the Motor Werks of Barrington auto mall.
Read More →
Michigan Auto Group Acquires Ohio Rooftops
Feldman Automotive Group added two new brands, Honda and Toyota, to its portfolio with its latest acquisition of four Fireside dealerships in Ohio.
Read More →
California VW Dealers Go After Scout
The franchisees’ state-level actions follow a California auto dealers trade group lawsuit against the VW affiliate last year, both efforts to stop the EV maker’s plan to sell direct to consumers.
Read More →
EVs Gain Traction in Europe
First-quarter auto sales increased as more consumers took advantage of government incentives. Hybrid deliveries are leading the way on the electrifieds boom.
Read More →
California Holds EV Lead Despite Annual Decline
At nearly 14%, California had the lowest zero-emission vehicle market share in the first quarter since the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the California New Car Dealers Association.
Read More →