Weather Pushing Down January Sales, Edmunds Says
Edmunds expects January sales to drop 23.6% from December and 0.6% from January 2013. But the vehicle information site expects sales to pick up in February when the bad weather clears.
SANTA MONICA, Calif. — The relentless blast of winter weather likely kept car shoppers away from dealerships in January, Edmunds.com said this week. The vehicle information site predicted that about 1.036 million new cars and trucks will be sold in in January, putting the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) at 15.6 million.
Edmunds’ sales projections represent a 23.6% decrease from December 2013 and a 0.6% decrease from January 2013.January’s weather complications mean that sales will likely be made up in February. Fortunately, officials said, car shoppers will find a friendly buying environment to make their big purchases.
"Even though 2013 year-end sales events have long passed, market conditions remain quite favorable for buyers," said Edmunds.com Chief Economist Lacey Plache. "In particular, interest rates, monthly lease payments and trade-in values are all at some of the best levels expected for the foreseeable future."
Plache cautions, however, that those strong buying conditions are bound to weaken. Auto loan rates, for example, are likely to rise in the near future, and trade-in values will likely soften as used-car inventories grow.
Edmunds.com estimates that the retail SAAR will come in at 12.9 million vehicles in January, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.3% of total sales. An estimated 2.89 million used cars will be sold in January, putting the used SAAR at 35.3 million (compared to 2.41 million — or a SAAR of 35.2 million — used car sales in December).
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales Volume | Jan-14 Forecast | Jan-13 | Dec-13 | Change from Jan 2013* | Change from Dec 2013* |
GM | 176,541 | 194,699 | 230,157 | -9.3% | -23.3% |
Ford | 155,819 | 165,863 | 216,592 | -6.1% | -28.1% |
Toyota | 151,195 | 157,725 | 190,843 | -4.1% | -20.8% |
Chrysler Group | 128,322 | 117,731 | 161,007 | 9.0% | -20.3% |
Honda | 98,066 | 93,626 | 135,255 | 4.7% | -27.5% |
Nissan | 88,070 | 80,919 | 109,758 | 8.8% | -19.8% |
Hyundai/Kia | 82,182 | 80,015 | 96,636 | 2.7% | -15.0% |
VW/Audi | 37,620 | 39,074 | 51,028 | -3.7% | -26.3% |
Industry | 1,036,533 | 1,042,530 | 1,356,984 | -0.6% | -23.6% |
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market Share | Jan-14 Forecast | Jan-13 | Dec-13 | Change from | Change from December 2013 |
GM | 17.0% | 18.7% | 17.0% | -1.6% | 0.1% |
Ford | 15.0% | 15.9% | 16.0% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
Toyota | 14.6% | 15.1% | 14.1% | -0.5% | 0.5% |
Chrysler Group | 12.4% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
Honda | 9.5% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 0.5% | -0.5% |
Nissan | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
Hyundai/Kia | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
VW/Audi | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
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