The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates for the third time this year and signaled it will raise the cost of borrowing again in December. Industry economists said it will not get better for consumers or the industry from here.
Despite the expected volume decline, the firm put September’s seasonally adjusted annual sales rate at a healthy 17.1 million, down from last September’s 18.1 million SAAR. The company said higher interest rates and talks of tariffs may be having some pull-ahead impact in the market.
Attorney Eric Johnson fields questions about the state of the CFPB, the now fully staffed FTC, and the aggressive stance of state attorneys general. He also offers a critical update on the Military Lending Act.
June’s annual percentage rate of 5.82% marked a 17% increase since January 2018. Add rising rates to a virtually saturated U.S. market, record-high vehicle prices, and historically high numbers of people who owe more than their cars are worth, and the stage is set for a market contraction, the firm said.
For the seventh time since 2015, the Federal Reserve increased the Federal Funds Rate a quarter percentage. Cox Automotive economists say higher interest rates and tighter credit have already led to softening retail demand, noting that further rate increases will impact all corners of the car business.
The dream of owning a new vehicle is becoming more elusive for the average American consumer, with the average amount financed and monthly payment for a new vehicle climbing to record highs of $31,455 and $523, respectively.
The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1.5% and 1.75%, but it hinted at a possible rate hike in June.
Edmunds analysts say the industry is beginning to see the trickle-down effect from the rate increases happening at the federal level. February's annual percentage rate on new finance vehicles was expected to average 5.2%, up from 4.9% in the year-ago period.
One industry analyst said the quarter-point hike will result in new-vehicle sales dropping below 17 million units in 2018, noting that the Fed Reserve’s previous three increases are responsible for fewer new leases and this year’s shift from new to used.
Car buyers are putting down $504 more on a new-vehicle purchase than they did five years ago. But with buyers purchasing pricier cars and interest rates on the rise, something has to give, Edmunds.com analysis said.
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