New-vehicle sales in the first half of the year are on target to post a healthy year-over-year gain, despite inflation pressure, Cox Automotive forecasts.

It projects sales through June to be up 3% over the same period last year and puts the sales pace so far this year at 15.6 million units, up from 15.4 million year-over-year. It’s maintaining its full 2024 forecast of 15.7 million, up 1.3% from 2023 and in line with the slow growth anticipated for the year on the strength of discounting and lower prices.

The outlook, though positive, is tempered by uncertainty over the presidential election in the fall and still-high interest rates, though the Federal Reserve is expected to make at least one rate cut this year.

“Incentives are rising, which are helping vehicle buyers, but only somewhat. The expectation of falling prices coupled with rising uncertainty around interest rate policies may lead some vehicle buyers to wait,” said Cox Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough in a press release on the forecast.

“We remain concerned that the second half of the year cannot maintain the growth we’ve seen so far. Adding to the uncertainty in the market, many consumers likely believe things will be better, or at least more certain, after the November election, which adds to the hesitancy in buying.”

Retail sales alone are forecast to close out the year at 12.8 million, about flat year-over-year, and fleet sales are projected to be up about 4% to 2.9 million.

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